StatCan analysts sharply cut wheat, barley and canola crop forecasts, but raised soybeans and corn

Yesterday's report from Statistics Canada (StatCan) significantly lowered crop forecasts for wheat, barley and canola, but raised production estimates for soybeans and corn compared to 2022. The crop cut is due to dry weather with higher than normal temperatures in the west of the country.

According to StatCan estimates, the country's wheat harvest in FY 2023/24 will decrease by 14.2% compared to the previous season, from 33.82 to 29.5 million tons, while the USDA in August estimated it at 33 million tons. Despite the increase in area sowing by 5.6% from 24.9 to 26.3 million acres, low productivity will lead to a reduction in production, especially of spring wheat, the yield of which will decrease by 14.5% to 22.1 million tons.

Barley production will be down 20.7% from last season, from 9.5 to 7.9 million tons, due to a 21.4% drop in yield from 67 to 55.3 bushels/acre, although planted area is up 1% from 6 .5 to 6.6 million acres.

Oat production will decrease by 53.5% to a 10-year low of 2.4 million tons due to a 21.4% drop in yield to 76.9 bushels/acre and a 40.9% decrease in planted area to 2 million acres.

Corn production will rise 1.3% to 14.7 million tons (15.3 million tons in August USDA report) thanks to a 4.1% increase in planted area to 3.7 million acres, although yields will decline 2.7% to 156.1 bushels/acre.

The canola harvest will decrease by 6.1% to 17.6 million tons, which will be the second largest indicator in the last 9 years. Planted area rose 3% to 21.9 million acres, or 8.87 million hectares, but dry weather in the Prairies will decrease yields by 8.8% to 35.4 bushels/acre.

In Saskatchewan, a major canola producer, production will decline 6.3% year-over-year to 9.1 million tonnes as yields decline 13.9% to 32.7 bushels/acre, although acreage increased by 8.7% to 12.3 million acres.

In Alberta, the canola crop will decline 1.2% to 5.5 million tonnes as acreage declines 3% to 6.3 million acres, although yields will rise 1.8% to 38.8 bushels/acre.

In Manitoba, the canola crop will decline by 13.3% to 2.7 million tonnes, yield by 9.5% to 39.2 bushels/acre, and planted area by 4.1% to 3.1 million acres.

Soybean production will rise 2.9% to 6.7 million tons thanks to a 6.8% increase in planted area to 5.6 million acres, offsetting a 3.5% decline in yield to 44.3 bushels/acre.