IGC experts predict an increase in world exports and a decrease in wheat stocks in 2023/24 MY

In the August report, IGC experts increased the forecast of world wheat exports in 2023/24 MR from 196.9 to 197.2 million tons (206.6 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for the EU - from 35, 7 to 36.2 (34.7) million tons, China - from 1.1 to 1.2 (1.1) million tons, the Russian Federation - from 45.2 to 46.6 (46.7) million tons.

At the same time, the forecast for the export of flour wheat was reduced due to the deterioration of quality in some countries - exporters of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular for Argentina - from 12.5 to 12.4 (4.5) million tons, Canada - from 26.2 to 24.2 (25, 2) million tons, the USA - from 19.9 to 19.1 (20.9) million tons.

The forecast of world wheat production in 2023/24 MR has been reduced compared to previous estimates from 784.2 to 784.1 million tons, which will be significantly inferior to the 803.3 million tons collected in 2022/23 MR. In particular, the production forecast for Canada has been reduced from 34 to 31.5 (33.8) million tons, EU countries - from 134.6 to 133.3 (133.8) million tons, USA - from 47.3 to 47.2 (44.9) million tons, while increased estimates for Ukraine from 23.2 to 24.5 (26.3) million and the Russian Federation - from 84.4 to 83.6 (95.4) million tons.

The estimate of world ending stocks of wheat in 2023/24 MR was reduced compared to the previous report from 263.2 to 260.9 million tons (141.2 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for Canada - to 2.8 (3, 1) million tons, EU countries - up to 13.8 (15.9) million tons, Kazakhstan - up to 1.2 (1.3) million tons, China - up to 138.4 (139.1) million tons, India - up to 11.7 (12.2) million tons, while the estimate of reserves for the USA was increased to 16.8 (16) million tons, Ukraine - to 2.8 (2) million tons, the Russian Federation - to 10.4 (10 ,2) million tons.