APK-Inform experts lower forecast of sunflower oil production in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY

On May 24, APK-Inform lowered the forecast for sunflower oil production in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY by 7% to 5.3 million tons, although estimates of sunflower harvest remain unchanged at 9.2 million tons. Ukraine is the world's largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil, and in 2021/22 MR grew 16.6 million tons of sunflower. However, Russia's invasion and fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine, where most sunflowers are grown, worsen production prospects in the new season.

According to APK-Inform estimates, the area under sunflower in 2022 may decrease compared to 2021 by 38% to 4.2 million hectares, which will be the lowest figure in 13 years. And the export of sunflower oil in 2022/23 MY is projected at 4.85 million tons. APK-Inform experts do not say how the oil will be exported when the seaports of Ukraine are blocked by Russian troops.

In addition, APK-Inform expects a reduction in rapeseed harvest compared to 2021 from 3.1 to 2.5 million tons, and soybeans - up to 2.69 million tons.

At the same time, the forecast of grain harvest and export in 2022/23 MY has been raised due to better-than-expected winter crop yields. According to APK-Inform experts, in 2022 Ukraine will harvest 48.3 million tons of grain, including 17.1 million tons of wheat and 25.2 million tons of corn. And the forecast of grain exports in 2022/23 MY increased compared to April estimates from 33.2 to 39.4 million tons.