Rains in Brazil improve prospects for soybean and corn production, while Ukraine accelerates harvest

The weather in the main grain exporting countries favors the sowing, growing and harvesting of grain and oil crops. The attention of analysts is now focused on South America, where sowing of soybeans and corn has begun.

In Brazil, the rains that have already passed and will continue will ensure good soil moisture, which will allow to increase the area sown to the planned levels and, in case of favorable conditions, to obtain record harvests. Analysts have raised the forecast for wheat production in 2022/23 MR from 9.67 to 10 million tons, which will help reduce dependence on wheat imports from Argentina.

According to the estimates of the Conab agency, in 2022/23 MY in Brazil, the area planted with maize of the first crop will grow by 14.6% and of the second - by 12.4%, and the total production will increase compared to 2021/22 MY by 12.5% with 112.805 to 126.9 million tons. At the same time, the soybean sowing area in 2022/23 MR due to favorable rainfall during sowing in September - October will grow by 3.4% compared to the previous season to 42.892 million hectares, and its harvest - by 21 .3% from 125.55 to 152.352 million tons.

In Argentina, the lack of precipitation and cold weather negatively affect the development of wheat and corn crops and delay sowing. Significant rainfall is not expected in the coming week, which will increase the pressure on crops.

According to the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires, as of September 28, 5.8% of the planned area was planted with corn (11% on this date last year). The forecast for corn production in Argentina in FY 2022/23 has been reduced compared to FY 2021/22 from 52 to 50 million tons.

The share of wheat crops in poor condition has increased to 45%, while the number of crops in good or excellent condition is only 14%. Because of this, according to stock exchange experts, wheat production in 2022/23 MR may decrease compared to 2021/22 MR from 22.4 to 17.5 million tons, so now it is extremely important to increase the amount of precipitation.

In Ukraine, after long rains in September, warm and dry weather prevailed, which, according to forecasts, will last at least two weeks and will allow to accelerate the pace of sowing winter crops and harvesting sunflowers, soybeans and corn. This will give optimism to farmers suffering from hostilities, low prices of produce and adverse weather conditions this season.

In the United States and Canada, warm and dry weather with little precipitation helps accelerate the harvesting of late crops and the sowing of winter crops.