Exchange prices for wheat continue to fall

Global wheat prices remain under pressure from low export demand. At the same time, experts are raising forecasts for wheat production in the new season, taking into account the improvement of conditions for wintering plants in the Northern Hemisphere.

The food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations expects a slight increase in wheat sowing areas in my 2022/23, in particular in the EU, China, the United States,Ukraine, Russia, India and Pakistan.

Russia exported 1.6 million tons of wheat in January, which is the minimum of the 2021/22 season, although it has shipped at least 2 million tons a month since July, and experts expected increased sales ahead of the introduction of the export quota from February 15. In general, in the season as of January 20, wheat exports amounted to 21 million tons, which is 24% less than last year.

Export prices for Black Sea wheat fell to a 3-month low amid low demand, but remain higher than for wheat from Argentina, the EU and the United States.

Offer prices for Black Sea Food wheat delivered in March – April for the week fell by 1 10-15/ton to F 320-325/ton FOB.

Purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine during this time fell by 1 18/ton to 2 288-294/ton with delivery to the port in February, and for feed wheat – by 2 22/ton to.268-274/ton.

In my 2021/22, Ukraine exported 17.1 million tons of wheat, which is 30.4% faster than last year's pace and is 75% of the 23.5 million tons agreed to export by the memorandum.

• March Black Sea wheat futures in Chicago fell another ще 1.25/ton to 3 312.75/ton yesterday, losing 6% over the week.

A sharp increase in the euro exchange rate from 1 1,124 to€ 1,146 / € has led to an increase in the dollar price, so sellers will be forced to lower prices in euros in order to boost export sales, which remain low and are unlikely to reach the projected levels.

• March European wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext fell 3 €/T yesterday to 261.25 €/t or 2 299.5/t.

Wheat prices in the United States fell amid a deterioration in export statistics. During January 21-27, wheat export sales fell to a 5-week low of 57.5 thousand tons, while actual weekly exports amounted to 385.56 thousand tons.

March wheat futures fell:

• by 1 1.19 / ton to Чикаго 276.2/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 0 0.1 / ton to H 282.6/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2 2.6/ton to.333.4 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Traders and analysts expect the updated USDA report to raise the forecast for wheat stocks in the US and around the world.