The USDA corn balance did not meet traders ' expectations and postponed the intrigue to March

Analysts had expected USDA experts to significantly lower their corn crop forecasts for South America, imports for China, and final inventory estimates in a February report. However, the balance sheet data has changed quite slightly compared to January, so the main intrigue is postponed to March, when more information about the harvest in South America will be received.

For the US, the balance sheet was also almost unchanged, although analysts had expected an increase in ethanol consumption and a decrease in export estimates amid low export rates in the first 4 months of the season.

In the new corn balance sheet for my 2021/22, USDA experts made the following changes compared to the January report::

• Forecast world-class production reduced by 1.61 million tons to 1205.35 million tons (which is 82.28 million tons higher than the 2020/21 MG harvest), primarily for Brazil and Paraguay, which partially compensates for the increase in the harvest in the Philippines. For Brazil, the estimate was lowered by only 1 million tons to 114 million tons (87 million tons in 2020/21 MG), although analysts expected the forecast to be lowered to 112-113 million tons or lower. For Argentina, the forecast was left at 54 million tons (50.5 million tons in 2020/21 mg), while analysts estimated the harvest at 52.1 million tons.
• Forecast global consumption reduced by 0.95 million tons to 1,195.17 million tons, which is 57.8 million tons higher than in my 2020/21.
• Forecast world exports reduced by 0.67 million tons to 203.67 million tons, but for Brazil and Argentina, the estimates,as in January, were again left unchanged at 43 and 39 million tons (compared to 19 and 39.5 million tons in 2020/21 MG). This will increase competition between major exporters in the second half of the season. For the United States, the export forecast was left at 61.6 million tons (70 million tons in 2020/21 MG), although the export rate is lower than last year.
• Forecast global imports increased by 1.36 million tons to 188.17 million tons, including for Iran and Canada. For the EU and China, estimates were left unchanged, although the pace of imports is lower than last year. And recently, the USDA representative office in China lowered its import forecast by 6 million tons to 20 million tons (compared to 29.5 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to reduced demand for feed grain.
• Forecast global final reserves reduced by 0.85 million tons to 302.22 million tons, which is 10.17 million tons higher than in 2020/21 mg, while analysts estimated them at 300 million tons.

March corn futures in Chicago reacted to the" bearish " USDA report with an increase of 2.2% to 2 254.6/ton, adding 7.8% of the price for the month against the background of dry weather in Argentina.

For Ukraine and Russia, the corn balance sheets have not changed compared to January, so prices will continue to remain stable in anticipation of increased purchases from China.