Argentina has threshed more than half of the wheat area, and crop forecasts are growing

Traders continue to discuss the December USDA wheat balance sheet, and are closely following forecasts for the harvest in Argentina, for which the new report left the production estimate at 20 million tons, while local analysts raise their forecasts, which increases pressure on prices.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), as of December 8, the country harvested 10.1 million tons of wheat with a yield of 2.95 t/ha from 3.43 million hectares or 53.4% of the area. The rate of harvesting corresponds to last year, but the condition of the crops that remained unfilled is much better. 67% of crops are in good or excellent condition, compared to 29% last year, which increases the chances of getting a good harvest.

High wheat yields in the south and center of the country allowed Bage exchange experts to raise their production forecast by 0.7 million tons to 21 million tons, while Rosario exchange analysts increased their estimate from 20.4 to 22.1 million tons.

After the release of the USDA report, wheat stock prices declined, but rose slightly on Friday, although fundamental factors in the form of an increase in supply increase pressure on prices.

The prices of Black Sea wheat are additionally pressured by favorable weather in the regions where winter wheat is grown in Ukraine and Russia, where it rained. While the lack of precipitation in the winter wheat growing area in the United States supports quotes.

March futures on US stock exchanges rose on Friday:

• by 3 3.12 / ton to Чикаго 288.5/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 3 3.31/ton to.296 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City.

However, hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis fell by 0 0.18/ton to.375.4/ton.

Algeria will hold a procurement tender this week that will support the prices of European wheat.

• March futures for European wheat on Paris Euronext after falling on Thursday by 4.51 €/ton on Friday rose by 1 €/ton to 283.5 €/ton or 3 320/ton.

South Korean processor MFG purchased 60 thousand tons of Indian feed wheat at a tender for delivery in January – February at a price of C 351/ton C&F, which increases pressure on the prices of Black Sea wheat, which does not stand up to competition in the Asian market.

An increase in the export duty on wheat in Russia from 8 84.9 to т 91/Ton will reduce export sales.

• March Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange on Friday rose на 1.5/ton to 3 338/ton.

In Ukraine, prices for food wheat fell in ports to 3 305-310/ton or UAH 9500-9900/ton against the background of lower world wheat prices.