Analysts lower forecasts for corn production in the world and in the US in 2023/24 MR

In the June report, IGC experts reduced the forecast of world corn production in 2023/24 MR by 6 million tons to 1.211 billion tons compared to previous estimates, which, although it will exceed last year's 1.15 billion tons by 5%, but will be significantly inferior to the USDA forecast of 1.223 billion t.

At the same time, the forecast of world wheat production has been increased by 3 million tons to 786 million tons, which will be slightly less than last year's 788.5 million tons, but will exceed the average annual level. Although the USDA in June estimated the wheat harvest at 800.2 million tons.

The forecast for world rapeseed production has been lowered to 85.9 million tons, which will be 10 million tons above the annual average, but 2.4% lower than last year's record 88 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 87.2 million tons. The reason for the adjustment was the hot and dry weather in the EU and Canada.

Refinitiv Commodities Research cut its forecast for US corn production in 2023/24 by another 11 million tonnes to 364 million tonnes (387.7 million tonnes - USDA) as crop conditions in the Corn Belt worsened significantly, even with recent rainfall. At the same time, the forecast for soybean production in the USA was reduced by 4 million tons to 115 million tons (122.7 million tons - USDA) due to the deterioration of the condition of crops in the main agrarian regions of the Midwest.

Also, Refinitiv Commodities Research reduced the forecast of corn production in China by 0.3 million tons to 278.2 million tons (277.2 million tons last year) against the background of rainfall deficit in some northern regions of the country.

In Argentina, the drought is delaying the sowing of winter crops, so the experts of the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires reduced the forecast of wheat sowing areas by another 0.1 million hectares to 6 million hectares.