Analysts raised forecasts for soybean and corn harvests in Brazil

As a result of the adjustment of soybean sowing areas, StoneX experts increased the forecast of soybean harvest in Brazil in 2023/24 MR by 156,000 tons to a record 163.63 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 3.8% compared to August estimates.

For example, in the state of Minas Gerais, the area of soybean sowing will exceed forecasts by 40 thousand hectares and will amount to 2.24 million hectares, and in general they will reach 45.14 million hectares in the country, which will exceed the previous season by 1 million hectares.

The FY 2022/23 safrinha maize crop forecast has been raised by 0.8 million tonnes to 109.1 million tonnes due to good prospects for late-harvest maize in Paraná.

At the same time, the forecast for the production of corn for the first harvest in 2023/24 was reduced compared to August estimates by 1.5% or 430 thousand tons to 28.2 million tons due to a reduction in the area sown in Baia - by 5% to 418 thousand hectares, in Minas Gerais - by 6% to 564 thousand ha. In total, the sowing area of this grain will reach 4.07 million hectares.

An uptick in crop forecasts for Brazil added pressure on soybeans and corn on the Chicago Stock Exchange, even as U.S. crops worsened after last week's heat wave.

According to NASS USDA, the number of corn in good or excellent condition during the week decreased by 3% to 53% (54% last year), and soybeans fell 5% to 53% (57% last year).

November soybean futures yesterday rose 0.8% to $505.7/t (+5% for the month), although they traded at $487/t last year. January futures are traded at $510/t, which indicates pessimism of American traders regarding soybean prices in the USA, which even against the background of crop reduction will not exceed last year's due to strong competition with Brazil.