Lower forecast of wheat production in Russia stopped the fall in prices for Black Sea wheat

After lowering the forecast of wheat production in Russia by 1 million tons to 85 million tons from USDA experts, yesterday the Russian consulting agency SovEcon lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia in 2021 by 2.3 million tons. tons up to 82.3 million tons. t due to a lower than expected yield at the beginning of the harvesting campaign. As of July 12, 1.96 million hectares of wheat were threshed in Russia and 6.46 million tons were threshed with a yield of 3.29 t/ha compared to 3.37 t/ha as of July 12, 2020 and 3.79 t/ha as of July 12, 2019.

The decline in prices for Black Sea wheat attracted more buyers: after Saudi Arabia bought 500 thousand tons, yesterday the Turkish grain agency (TMO) at the tender purchased 395 thousand tons of red grain flour wheat for delivery on August 16-30, including 25 thousand tons with protein 12.5% at a price of about 256.8$/T C&F, and 370 thousand tons with protein 11.5% at prices of about 253.88-255.4$/T C&F, which is 4 4-5/ton more expensive than at the previous tender on June 30.

 Today, the Egyptian grain agency GASC will hold a tender for the purchase of an undeclared amount of flour-milling wheat of any origin for delivery on September 11-20, 2021, which will become an additional indicator of prices for Russian and Ukrainian wheat, which have already lost three tenders in a row at the price of Romanian wheat.

European wheat prices accelerated growth yesterday amid a delay in harvesting in France due to precipitation, as well as concerns about a possible deterioration in Wheat Quality.

The first signals about a decrease in the quality of wheat grain have already begun to come from some regions of France where harvesting is underway.

The depreciation of the euro against the dollar below the level of 1.18 dollars per euro also increases the competitiveness of European wheat.

September quotes of flour wheat on the Paris MATIF Exchange rose by €3.50 to €202.50/ton or € 239.18/ton.

On Tuesday, after a crazy rally the day before on the data of the American part of the July USDA report, investors in Chicago and Kansas City decided to take a small profit.

Durum spring wheat in Minneapolis continued to move up on data from very poor crop conditions.

September quotes of American winter wheat decreased:

• soft wheat SRW in Chicago up 2 2.57 to 2 232.86 / ton;
• HRW durum wheat in Kansas City by 1 1.29 to 2 224.77 / ton;
• hrs durum wheat in Minneapolis rose на 1.65 to 3 316.63 / ton.

Quotes of Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange for Monday and Tuesday rose sharply: August futures by 5 5.5/ton to.239/ton, and December by. 7.75/ton to. 251.25/ton, following the growth of quotes for American wheat.

Demand prices for Black Sea wheat remain at about F 220-225/ton FOB for delivery in August-September, but supply prices have increased slightly, which will be adjusted against the background of new data on yields in Ukraine and Russia.