Lower stock wheat prices will stop the growth of prices for Black Sea wheat

After rapid growth on Monday, wheat quotes on world stock exchanges remained stable on Tuesday, but yesterday they fell sharply against the background of increased sales by traders.

Markets expect new USDA forecasts for wheat production in the main exporting countries-the United States, Canada, Ukraine and Russia, which will be released next week. Low customer activity against the background of a seasonal increase in offers will lead to lower prices in the near future.

Frosts and lack of precipitation worsen the condition of wheat crops in Brazil and Argentina. At the same time, forecasts of precipitation in Canada and lower temperatures in the US Plains reduced prices for spring wheat, and even increased export sales did not support quotes.

September US futures fell:

• by 2 2.66 / ton to Чикаго 263.5/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 4 4.87 / ton to H 255/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 6 6.15/ton to.331.8 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Rains delay harvesting in Europe, so the French Ministry of Agriculture lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest by 400 thousand tons to 36.7 million tons, which is still 25.8% higher than last year's figure. The low pace of European wheat exports also puts pressure on prices. In the 2021/22 season, as of August 1, the EU exported 962.95 thousand tons of wheat, which is 53.6% lower than last year's figure of 1.48 million tons.

• September wheat flour futures for MATIF fell 4 €/ton to 224.25 €/ton or 265.38 € / ton.

Algeria's state agency OAIS purchased 200 thousand tons of food wheat at a tender for delivery in September at a price of 3 320-323/ton CFR, which will support the prices of French wheat, which Algeria usually buys.

Turkish agency TMO purchased 245 thousand tons of food wheat for delivery on September 16-30 at an average price of 2 297.4-302/ton CFR, which is 4 40-45/ton higher than at the tender on July 12. However, the results of the tender may be canceled due to high prices, as happened with the barley tender.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, Black Sea wheat futures also declined, albeit slightly:

• August-by 0 0.75 / ton to2 267.75 / ton,
• December-by 0 0.5 / ton to.288.25 / ton.

Supply prices for Russian food wheat remain at a high level of 2 265-275/ton FOB, but demand prices do not exceed.260/ton FOB. If Turkey does not cancel the tender, it will significantly support the prices of Russian wheat, which Turkey traditionally buys.

In Russia, as of August 3, 47.4 million tons of wheat with a yield of 3.43 t/ha were harvested from 13.8 million hectares or 49% of the area.

Egypt may reduce wheat imports by 13% this year, according to Reuters estimates, amid significant stocks over the past 6.5 months and increased controls on the management, transportation and turnover of wheat trade in the country.

Egypt and Turkey are the main buyers of Russian wheat, which is increasingly competitive from Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine.