The increase in production forecasts for Russia collapses, the price of wheat

2020-08-04 12:02:50
Machine translation
The increase in production forecasts for Russia collapses, the price of wheat

Yesterday, the wheat exchanges traded under pressure of news of increased production forecasts in Russia and the drop in prices of Russian wheat, which slows down and so the slow pace of wheat exports from the US and the EU.

 

Experts IKAR, thanks to good yields in the Central regions of the country increased the forecast of wheat production in Russia by 1.5 million tons to 79.5 million tons.

 

As at 3 August in Russia, with 46,1% of the area, or 13.6 million hectares and produced 49.7 million tons of wheat with a yield of 3.66 t/ha (at 3.61 t/ha in 2019).

 

According to IKAR, the price of Russian wheat with protein of 12.5% on FOB-Black sea ports for the week was down 3 $/ton to 207 $/ton, according to SovEcon – 209 to $/t

 

In the news September futures wheat in Chicago has updated a 2-week low, as increasing the harvest in Russia and the worsening export prospects for U.S. wheat. Winter wheat in the United States is collected on 85% of space compared to 80% last year and 88% average for 5 years. The number of spring wheat in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 73% that corresponds to level of last year.

 

the September wheat futures in the U.S. fell:

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4.32 $/t to 158,27 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

by 2.76 $/t to 186,10 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 3.77 $/t to 191,43 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

 

the EU Countries (including the UK) in 2020/21 MG as of 2 August decreased compared to the corresponding period last year the export of wheat by 68% to 635,453 thousand tons, but increased its imports by 8% to 143,674 thousand tons.

 

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  • Under pressure the slow pace of wheat exports from the EU on the background of the growth in the supply of black sea wheat September futures milling wheat on MATIF fell by 2.5 €/t to 180,25 €/t or 212,04 $/t

 

In Ukraine, with 72% of the area or 4.8 million hectares harvested 18.3 million tonnes of wheat with a yield of 3.81 t/ha, which gives hope for the harvest at 26 million tons.

 

the Increased supply is adding pressure on prices and they are gradually declining, although some traders even buy the wheat at a high price for the rapid formation of export shipments.

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