FAO estimates in 2020/21 MG in the world will collect a record harvest of grain

2020-10-09 12:05:46
Machine translation
FAO estimates in 2020/21 MG in the world will collect a record harvest of grain

Despite the reduction in production forecasts and reserves, the volume of offers of grain on the world markets in 2020/21 MG remains quite high.

 

FAO Experts in the October forecast was reduced in comparison with the previous report, evaluation of the world grain production in 2020 by 2.5 million tonnes to 2762 million tonnes, which is 2.1% or 55.7 million tonnes will exceed the yield 2019 In particular, the forecast production of coarse grains decreased by 0.5% or 7.2 mln t to 1,488 million tonnes because of low yields of maize in the EU, Ukraine and Russia. At the same time the evaluation of the harvest of barley increased by 1.6% to 156,6 million tonnes, which partially offset the decrease in forage production. The forecast of wheat production increased by 0.6 percent or 5 million tons to a record 765 million tons, primarily due to Australia where the weather contributes to the formation of an abundant harvest after two years of drought. The increase of rice production in Mali, India and Sri Lanka as a result of increased planting acreage compensates for the decline in Egypt, Pakistan and Thailand as a result of shortage of water for irrigation. Therefore, the forecast of rice production left at 509,1 million tonnes, which would still be a record and 1.6% higher than the harvest of 2019.

 

Forecast world corn consumption in 2020/21 MG compared with September decreased by 2.8 million tonnes to 2744 MT, which is 2% or 54.5 million tonnes will exceed the level 2019/20 Mr. In particular, the estimated consumption of coarse grains decreased by 2.7 million tonnes to 1477 million tonnes, which is by 2.9% or 41млн t will exceed a level of 2019 most will decrease the consumption of corn industry in the US and the EU, as well as in feed production, as it will increase the consumption of barley by 4.1% or 6 million tons, owing to better prices for it. Forecast of consumption of wheat left at 757 million tonnes, 5.8 million tonnes will exceed the level 2019/20 MG, whereas the estimated consumption of rice increased by 1.5% to a record 510,5 million tons.

 

Evaluation the end of world grain stocks in 2020/21 MG decreased compared with September by 0.7% or 5.9 million tonnes to 890 million tonnes, which is 1.9% or 16.7 million tonnes will exceed the level of Mr 2019/20 and will be a new record.

 

the Ratio of inventory and consumption of grain in 2020/21 MG will amount to 31.6%, whereas in 2019/20 MG it was 31.8%, which is fairly high. Contrary to previous expectations corn stocks will decrease by 10 million tons at the same time the stocks of wheat due to the good harvest will increase in comparison with the previous season by 3.7% or 10 million tonnes to 284,8 million tons, which is inferior to the record level of season 2017/18. Most wheat stocks will increase in China, whereas in other countries they will be reduced. Assessment of stockpiles of rice has increased by 700 thousand t до182 million tonnes, which will match the level of last season and will be the second-largest ever.

 

Forecast world grain trade in 2020/21 MG in comparison with September increased by 6.2 million tons, which is 2.4% or 10.6 million tonnes will exceed the record figure of Mr 2019/20. In particular, the assessment of trade in wheat increased by 3 million tonnes to the level of Mr 2019/20. An increase in supply in Australia, the EU and Russia to meet growing demand from North Africa and Asia, especially China and Egypt. The volume of trade of coarse grains will increase in comparison with the previous season, 3.5% or 7.2 million tonnes due to the high demand for corn, barley and sorghum. China will increase corn imports through higher domestic prices, and the EU – due to the reduction of its own production. The United States will increase exports of corn, while Argentina and Brazil will cut it compared to the record levels 2019/20 Mr. The volume of world rice trade in 2021г. will increase compared to 2020 6.9% to 47.1 million tonnes Reduction in export from Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand will be covered by the increase from India.

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