High world prices for goods exported by Ukraine increase pressure on the dollar exchange rate

For more than two weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar on the interbank market has remained stable at UAH 27.5/. due to several factors that will contribute to its strengthening in the next 2-3 months.

First, there are significant foreign currency receipts and an increase in its supply on the interbank market, due to high world prices for the main export groups of Ukrainian agricultural products, iron ore and steel.

During the year, prices for agricultural products increased by 40-50%, and according to analysts ' forecasts, they will continue to remain at a high level, and an increase in the harvest will provide additional foreign exchange earnings.

Chairman of the NBU Council Bohdan Danylyshyn said that "now there is a favorable price environment for Ukraine: the FAO index of World Food Prices is at the highest level since May 2014, and prices for steel and iron ore on world markets have increased by 20-35% over the year."

Concorde Capital experts explained that the stability of the trade balance was ensured by a slower growth of imports of goods to Ukraine compared to exports.

Also, the increase in foreign exchange earnings was facilitated by the situation on foreign financial loan markets and the placement of Ukrainian Eurobonds there, as well as the activation of purchases of domestic government bonds by non-residents, investments in which have increased by 14% since the beginning of the year.

The Ministry of Finance borrowed 1 1.25 billion a few weeks ago at a relatively low 6.875%, and plans to continue actively entering foreign markets, which will continue to strengthen the hryvnia exchange rate.

Another factor in supporting the national currency in the authorities is considered to be revenues from employees, which by the end of the year will amount to at least.10 billion, although this will be significantly less than last year's 1 12-14 billion. Net sales of foreign currency by the population of Ukraine since the beginning of the year exceeded.1.1 billion, while the volume of net purchases of foreign currency by the National Bank during this period amounted to. 220.5 million.