The lack of rainfall has led to a sharp speculative rise in the price of wheat

Yesterday, the speculators tried to reheat the wheat market on the news of lower crop forecasts in the major exporting countries due to dry weather conditions.

the rainfall that took place in Ukraine and in the Central regions of Russia, amounted to a minimum of 5-10 mm, which is insufficient to activate the growth of winter wheat. The absence in the next 7-10 days precipitation in Ukraine, the EU and Russia can significantly reduce harvest forecasts of wheat for those countries.

Yesterday the Russian Agency of IKAR has lowered the forecast of wheat production in Russia from 79,5 to 77.2 million tonnes, which has led to the rapid growth of quotations, first in Paris and then in the United States.

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• the May wheat futures on the MATIF rose by 5.25 €/t to nearly two-year high 203,75 €/t 220,8 or $/ton, and September – by 4.5 €/t to 190,75 €/t or 206,7 $/t

Prices supported a possible ban of wheat exports from Russia since the end of may, with 43% of the quota already used, as well as rumors about problems with the availability of physical volumes of wheat for the closure of export commitments season 2019/20 in France.

the Number of crops of winter wheat in good or excellent condition in France for a week has decreased by 1% to 61%.

the American stock exchange yesterday, the wheat grew after European on the back of lower production forecasts in Russia and Ukraine and because of the deterioration of winter wheat in the United States, even despite the price collapse in U.S. crude oil by 300% and the resulting drop in the markets of soybeans and corn.

wheat Exports from the U.S. for the week decreased by 29% to 469,9 thousand tons and since the beginning of the season was 21,964 million tonnes to reach the USDA projected in April, the level, the country have until June 1 to export 4.8 million tons of wheat, 800 thousand tons weekly.

According to estimates of the USDA spring wheat in the United States through the cool weather, planted only 7% of the planned areas compared to 18% on average for 5 years at that date.

the Number of crops of winter wheat in good or excellent condition in the U.S. for the week decreased by 5% to 57%, while a year ago the figure was 62%. A satisfactory level of soil moisture reserves decreased by 2% to 88% compared to 94% last year.

the May wheat futures in the U.S.:

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by 6.06 $/t to 181,97 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

1.47 $/t to 187,66 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

• for 5,60 $/t to 201,63 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago