The FX market remains in limbo
Fundamental factors contribute to the appreciation of the currency, while a decrease in demand and increase in supply puts pressure on the exchange rate. The decrease in the volume of interbank trading increases the market dependence on the actions of the players that operate on amounts over $10 million.
After the jump of course last week, for the payment of which the national Bank sold almost $ 200 million in Monday trading on the interbank market was rather quiet. Although traders expect further currency appreciation, which shows the growth rate of cash dollar to 25.5/25.8 per UAH/$.
Yesterday's trading the dollar rose to 24.9 UAH/$, but at the end of the session fell to Friday's level of 24.72/24,76 UAH/$. Despite this help, the NBU exchange rate compared to Friday increased from 24,6110 to 24,8801 UAH/$ and the official rate of the national Bank – with 24,611821 directly to 24,867568 UAH/$. The situation should clarify auction the Ministry of Finance on government bonds.
Experts expect that after significant debt payments in September the dollar will start to grow, but he remained stable through the sale of government bonds in national currency.
During September at the foreign exchange debt of the state was paid 1.97 billion $, in particular 560,9 million $ - the obligations to the IMF, and another 1,223 billion $ went to the service and sale of Eurobonds. Through this, the international reserves of Ukraine in September decreased by 2.6%, although their expenses were partially offset by the sale of new foreign currency bonds in the amount of almost 547 million $.
Support the hryvnia in September, new fundamental factors: a stable flow of funds of nonresidents in the hryvnia national debt and a record yield of grain. They provided a significant excess of proposals of foreign currency on demand, which allowed the NBU to replenish international reserves to 930,3 $ million, of which 650,3 million $ were purchased in the interventions at a uniform rate, and another 280 million us $ - on request the best rate.
