On Monday, the dollar on the interbank market continued to go up
Panic in global financial markets caused by the epidemic coronavirus and its impact on the global economy, has already reached Ukraine. Starting Friday, the hryvnia fell by 1.5%, or 37 of the CPC, while the dollar rose to of 24.89/24,87 UAH/$, but on Monday in the world markets experienced a gradual recovery in oil prices, stocks and agricultural products. The Russian ruble last week declined by 3.8%, but rose yesterday, with the support of the oil market, the price of which for 2 days has recovered by 6%.
Investors looking for safe assets, while avoiding emerging markets, which belongs to Ukraine. The demand for domestic government bonds by non-residents in the near future significantly increase the pressure on the hryvnia.
Last auctions of the Ministry of Finance showed that the decrease of yield of government bonds and the national currency is overbought does not interest investors. According to the NBU, in February, the portfolio holders of government bonds in national currency grew by only 3%, the smallest increase since October 2019 Investment of non-residents in foreign bonds are also reduced for the second consecutive month and year has declined by 15%.
pressure on the hryvnia will increase if non-residents will begin to withdraw assets from Ukraine on the background of unstable world markets and reduction in exports of domestic products as a result of falling demand.
Maybe the hryvnia will get some support from the farmers, which with the beginning of the sowing campaign actively sell the currency for replenishment of working capital.
the Slowdown in the global economy and reduced demand for goods will reduce the flow of currency in Ukraine, so it is extremely important in the near future to obtain the IMF loan, which will help stabilize the Ukrainian economy and the hryvnia.
Spread coronavirus in Ukraine will reduce business activity, will lead to a drop in GDP and the deterioration in the economy, which further increase the pressure on the hryvnia.
