Again, the USDA raised its forecast of world production and reserves soy

In an April report, the experts USDA once again increased the forecasts of world production and ending stocks, and reduced the estimate of the consumption of soybeans in 2020/21 MG.

Once again USDA surprised the market participants ' forecasts for South America as the evaluation of the soybean crop in Brazil has increased, and Argentina left unchanged, although local analysts lowered their forecasts for the first yield statistics.

Forecast of global soybean production increased by 1.4 million tonnes to 363,2 million tonnes (339 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), in particular for Brazil by 2 million tonnes to 136 million tons (128,5 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), while for Argentina it was left at the level of 47.5 million tons (48.8 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) when analysts in the range of 43-45 million tons.

Estimation of the global consumption of soybean decreased by 1.76 million tonnes to 369,55 million tonnes (356,82 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to the drastic reduction of processing volumes in China by 2 million tonnes to 96 million tonnes, due to changes in the diet of pigs and a reduction in the consumption of soybean meal using too high a price.

Forecast of world exports of soybeans again increased by 1.2 million tonnes to 170,91 million tonnes, in particular the USA – by 0.81 million tons to 62.05 million tonnes (45,78 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), and Brazil by 1 million tons to 86 million tons (92,14 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG). For Russia, the export forecast is slightly raised, and for Ukraine and Paraguay reduced. Evaluation of soybean imports in China has been left unchanged.

as a Result of reduced consumption ending stocks of soybeans in China will grow by 2 million tonnes to 31.6 million tonnes, and world ending stocks of soybeans in 2020/21 MG will increase by 3.13 million tonnes to 86,87 million tonnes (96,04 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), which will reduce speculative demand for oil.

After the publication of the report, the futures exchange in Chicago fell:

• to soy – 0.8% to 515,5 $/t (after the release of the March report was 526 $/t),
• in soybean oil by 1.1% to 1163,8 $/t (1070 $/t),
• soybean meal by 1.1% to 441,9 $/t (457,35 $/t).

Brazil completes the collection of soybeans and confirms the predictions of a good harvest. In Argentina, the harvest has just started, so the next month data on productivity will be the main factor of influence on prices.

an Increase in supply of soybeans from Argentina and Brazil to reduce the price of soybeans and soybean meal, which increases pressure on the prices of feed grains.