The USDA increased the forecast of world production and stocks of soybean in 2019/20 Mr
In the March report, the experts, the USDA has dramatically increased the forecasts of world production and stocks of soybean in 2019/20 MG due to the good harvest in Argentina and Brazil.
thus, in comparison with the balance of February, the initial estimate of world reserves increased by 0.66 million tonnes to 111,88 million tons, the forecast of world output by 2.4 million tonnes to 341,8 million tons and ending stocks - 3.48 million tonnes to 102,44 million tons, since the estimated consumption of soybean was reduced by 1 million tonnes to million tonnes. 350,07
Weather in South America contributes to the formation of a record soybean crop. Therefore, to Argentina's forecast of oil production increased 1 million tons to 54 million tons and for Brazil by 1 million tonnes to 126 million so It was a surprise for analysts, who had expected the increase in production forecasts for these countries in the range of 0.1-0.2 million t
Argentina forecast consumption and processing of soybeans was reduced by 1 million tonnes, against the background of increasing government export duties on soy and its by-products will lead to higher ending stocks.
For the U.S. and China forecasts left unchanged, that have disappointed traders who were hoping for a revival of trade soybeans after signing the first trade agreement between the countries.
Surprisingly, the USDA has not reduced the forecast of soybean imports in China despite the decline in demand as a result of the epidemic coronavirus and quarantine, which led to a sharp reduction in the consumption of products.
After the "black Monday" soybean futures in Chicago was restored after the price of oil, and even the "bearish" USDA report did not prevent them to grow by 0.5% to of 323.2 $/t
To market pressure to boost export of soybeans from Brazil, which in just the first week of March, exported 2.45 million tonnes of oilseeds compared to 5,12 million tons, shipped during February.
the U.S. last week exported 583 tonnes of soy, which is 38% less than the corresponding period last year, and since the beginning of the season was implemented by 30.1 million tons of soybeans, which is slightly above last year's pace. To achieve the projected level of exports, the country needs up to the end of the season to ship 20 million tons of soybean, 800 thousand tons per week, against the background of falling demand from China and increased competition from South America does not look too realistic.
