USDA slightly increased its forecast of world production and carryover corn

Experts in the December USDA report on world supply and demand of maize showed minimal changes in the balance in comparison with the previous month, raising the forecast for world corn production to 1 million tons by 1099,91 million tons and increasing the carryover forecast by 1.3 million tonnes to 308,8 million tons.

Forecast of production increased due to the increase in corn production in Ukraine at 1.5 million tonnes and in the EU at 0.9 million tonnes, due to output growth in Romania, which offset lower production in South Africa of 1 million tons in Canada and the 0.6 million tonnes.

the balance sheet of corn in the U.S. has remained virtually unchanged, with the exception of reducing the use of corn for ethanol by 1.27 million tonnes, which is reflected in the increase in ending stocks of 1.15 million tons.

Analysts had expected greater changes in the global balance of corn especially China, Brazil and Argentina, but data for these countries remained unchanged, and only for Brazil was reduced carry-over stocks of 1.5 million tons. Forecast corn production in Brazil remains at the level of 94.5 million tons, while the export forecast at the level of 29млн tone while the updated forecast from the Brazilian Agency Conab shows the production 91млн.tone export 31млн tons.

the increase in the consumption of corn in China by reducing the import of sorghum and barley has not yet been reflected in the updated balance.

the Increase in forecast corn production in Ukraine up to 35 million tons was predictable, since, according to the Ministry of agriculture of Ukraine has already harvested 34.5 million tonnes, also increased the forecast of corn exports from Ukraine by 1 million tons to 28млн tons.

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the corn Futures in Chicago have not practically changed after the report and traded in the green zone at the level of 151.7$/ton .

Us traders see no problems with selling maize for export in the near future, as demand for U.S. corn is high enough and the rate of exports higher than last year, competition from Ukrainian corn is felt only in the Asian market, and the supply of corn from South America will appear not earlier than in March.

the Demand for Ukrainian corn are also pushing prices up a bit since the beginning of the week, prices gained around 1-2 dollars and returned to the level of the end of November 153-155$/t delivery port in December and 155-156$/t in January.

According to the updated balance forecast corn imports in the EU remains at the level of 21 million tons, despite the increase in forecast corn production in the EU, which guarantees a good market for Ukrainian corn, which leads to supply in the EU since the beginning of the season.