USDA expects canola production to reach record levels in FY 2022/23

2022-08-16 12:20:53
Machine translation
USDA expects canola production to reach record levels in FY 2022/23

In the August balance of oilseed crops for 2022/23 MY, USDA experts sharply increased the forecast of world rapeseed production, primarily due to a 60% increase in the harvest in Canada compared to last year, which will exceed the average annual indicator by 15%, as well as an increase in production in EU countries , Ukraine and Australia due to high world prices. Rapeseed and canola sowing areas are 5.5% higher than last year and amount to 39.81 million hectares, which is 11% higher than the 5-year average and allows us to hope for a record harvest.

 

Compared to the July report, the rapeseed balance for the 2022/23 MY has changed as follows:

 

  • The global production forecast was increased by 2.25 million tons to 82.48 million tons (72.3 million tons in 2021/22 FY), in particular for the EU - by 0.1 to 17.95 (17.2) million tons, Australia - by 0.7 to 6.1 (6.5) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 1.1 to 3.9 (2.5) million tons.
  • World consumption , growing for the fourth year in a row, will increase by 5.1 million tons compared to the previous season to a record 79.178 million tons, the largest annual increase in 14 years.
  • For the first time in 4 years, production volume will exceed demand by 3.302 million tons, so ending stocks will grow by 47.3% or .187 million tons to 6.811 million tons, which will be 0.58 million tons lower than the average 5-year indicator.
  • If in the previous season the global export of rapeseed decreased to 14.26 million tons due to a drop in production in Canada, then in 2022/23 MR it will reach 17.88 million tons, which will correspond to the level of 2020/21 MR, primarily due to increased demand from China by 0.3 million tons to 2.8 million tons. For Australia, the export forecast has been increased by 0.35 to 4.5 (5.5) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 0.4 to 0.7 million tons. Ukraine will increase exports thanks to increased demand from the EU, which is the main global importer of rapeseed.

 

November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF fell 3.8% to €24/t yesterday to €632.25/t or $642.9/t, losing 4% for the month and returning to pre-war levels on February 22.

 

November canola futures were down 3.2% yesterday at CAD 836/t, or $648/t, down 2.2% on the month to a level lower than February 22.

 

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for rape rose for a week from UAH 13,500-14,500/t to UAH 14,500-15,000/t at free elevators in the western regions and to UAH 15,500-16,000/t or $400-430/t with delivery to the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk. Export demand prices for August deliveries of domestic rapeseed to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria fell to $570-600/t.

 

An increase in new-crop canola supplies amid the approaching harvest in Canada is increasing pressure on Ukrainian canola prices as competition for European buyers increases between exporters from Canada, Ukraine and Australia.

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