The pressure of fundamental factors on the price of wheat increases
the market high-quality spring wheat growing tension due to the weather conditions in Canada, the USA and Kazakhstan, where precipitation delayed harvest and the predicted frosts can reduce the crop.
MSG at the same time Russia increased the estimate of wheat production from 75 to 78 million tonnes, which significantly exceeds the predicted USDA in September of 72.5 million tonnes as at 23 September in Russia with 87,6% of the area harvested of 72.1 million tonnes (in bunker weight) of wheat.
Argentina forecast of wheat production is once again reduced because of the drought and frosts on crops. According to Grain exchange Buenos Aires, as a result of weather conditions, 12% of crops are in poor condition, 20-40% have an irreversible loss of yield". In the near future significant rain in the country predict that will prevent the sowing of maize.
After winning the tender in Egypt of French wheat, which was the cheapest on the basis of FOB quotes on the stock exchange in Paris rose 0.5 €/t to 171 €/t. However, the depreciation of the Euro 1,096 to $/€ dropped the price of the futures in dollar terms to 187,15 $/t, which increases the competitiveness of European grain on the world market.
Forecasted frost and snow in the States of Montana and North Dakota raised the price of spring wheat in Minneapolis by 1.6%, while the quotations of wheat fall.
the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies and rising wheat prices reduce the competitiveness of us wheat, which is due to the high cost of not even participated in the Egyptian tender.
Prices of Russian wheat protein 12,5% increase for shipments in October-November to 190 $/t FOB while demand remain at 186-187 $/t FOB. The increase in wheat production in Russia will be compensated by its reduction in Kazakhstan and increased demand for high-quality Russian grain processors of Kazakhstan.
In Ukraine as a result of increased export demand despite the strengthening of the hryvnia procurement prices for wheat with protein 11,5-12,5% increase in port before 4950-5000 UAH/t or 171-173 $/t, for feed – to 4900 UAH/t or 169-170 $/t. Prices of Ukrainian wheat with protein 11.5% of 187-189 rose to $/t FOB for delivery in October-November.
