Pork prices in Chicago surpassed the record of 2018 on expectations boost exports to China

the July futures on the living pork on the stock exchange in Chicago yesterday rose by 2.3% to 2.2 $/kg live weight, surpassing the psychological level of $1/lb and showing an annual increase of 25%. Prices for U.S. pork has reached such a level in 2018 as a result of the epidemic of African swine fever in China and in 2019, after signing a trade agreement China has stepped up imports from the U.S. because of the small number of private stock.

Speculative price increases associated with the identified in the provinces of Guangdong and Xinjiang new outbreaks of ASF, which can lead to reduced sentences meat and increase in imports.

According to the agriculture Ministry of China, late last year, the number of breeding pigs in the country was 41 and 61 million heads,and the total number – of 406.5 million head, that is, in comparison with the 2019 year (before the epidemic ASF) production capacity restored by 90%.

Experts believe that in the case of new ASF will rise again meat imports and reduced exports of soybeans and corn that are required for the manufacture of feeds.

In the second half of February, the prices of commercial pigs in China declined slightly, primarily due to the saturation of the market of meat from the state reserve, and after the liquidation of the population.

In the past two weeks, pork prices are kept at a level of 4.9 $/kg, while on the eve of the Chinese New year in early February, they reached the 5.56 $/kg.

Last year, Chinese authorities banned the use of antibiotics in animal feed. So this winter with unusual cold worsened the situation in the industry as the animals become more likely to get sick with respiratory infections and diarrhea so bad gained weight. According to the January survey Genesus Inc., for the first time in 13 months, the rate of recovery of the industry has slowed and the number of pigs that falls to the slaughterhouse underweight again exceeds the performance 2019. According to calculations by Bloomberg, during the winter cold in the slaughterhouse was sent to 15% of breeding stock or 6 million head, so restore the population to the level that preceded the epidemic of African swine fever, can be expected until the second half of 2022.

According to the Association of "Meat industry" (AMH) in Ukraine on the background of increased imports and the beginning of lent, the average quotation of pork dropped from 44-45 to 40-42 UAH/kg of body weight. The increase in pork imports in February compared with the corresponding period last year to 3.5 times due to the fact that the price of live pigs in the EU for 10 UAH/kg lower than in Ukraine. A decline from March 1, VAT rate from 20% to 14% further increase competition between Ukrainian and imported pork.

higher prices for feed grain for the last half of the year 50% damage to livestock, and the inability to raise their selling prices will increase the slaughter of pigs and a range of meat on the market, which will lead to a drop in demand for food.