Prices for rapeseed remain in limbo because of the relationship of Canada and China

China to continue the political pressure on Canada after the arrest of Finance Director of Huawei Meng Wanzhou, already canceled a permit for the import of canola to a third canadian company.

Canada exporting to China 40% of the canola, it will be difficult to compensate for the loss of this market. China also will not be able to replace the canadian canola because rapeseed crop in the EU will decrease due to the reduction in acreage, and in Australia for a long period of drought. In 2017/18 MG 93% imported by China rapeseed (canola) had canadian origins.

According to forecasts of FAS USDA, in the next season, China will increase imports of soybeans and canola, despite the reduction in the number of pigs due to ASF outbreaks.

In comparison with the current season's soybean imports will increase from 88 to 91.5 million tons (which will give the indicator 2017/18 MG – 94,1 mln tonnes), while imports of rapeseed – 0.2% to 5.7 million tons.

2018/19 MG in USA through intense relations with China has reduced the export of soybeans in this direction and opened up new markets, particularly the EU, which offset the deficit of rapeseed.

Significant soybean crop in South America this season and the signing of trade agreements with the United States, where the promised purchase "a significant amount" of soy, will allow China to increase soybean imports in the new season and to reduce the import canadian canola.

the Reduction of exports of canola to China will force canadian farmers to reduce the acreage under it in favor of wheat and soybeans.

Yesterday the price of canola in Chicago fell 1.5% to 456 CAD/t or 341,5 $/t despite strong growth in prices of other oilseeds.

On the Euronext rapeseed prices remain at the level of 363 €/t or 406,3 $/t

the Market of rapeseed in the new season will depend on political decisions of the governments of the US, China and Canada, as well as weather conditions during planting canola in Canada and spring rapeseed in the EU and Russia.