Prices for fall canola under pressure from the strengthening of the Euro and on expectations of output growth
September futures on the MATIF rapeseed on Friday continued to fall and dropped by 2.25 €/t to 377,5 €/t, losing a week of 6.5 €/t, but the dollar price due to the strengthening of the Euro 1,165 to $/€ remained at the level of last week 440 $/T. the Main driver of growth was the increase in the forecast of the world rapeseed production.
the experts of the IGC in the July report increased compared with the June estimate, the forecast of the world rapeseed production in 2020/21 MG 0.5 million tonnes to 69.8 million tons, which exceeds 68,7 million tons of season 2019/20. In particular for Canada forecast canola production increased 0.6 million tons to 19.1 million tons, compared to 18.6 million tonnes in 2019/20 Mr. For China, the forecast production has increased from 13.8 to a record 13.9 million tons compared with 13.6 million tons in 2019/20 Mr.
at the same time the production estimates for the EU excluding the UK once again reduced, now from 15.6 to 15.4 million tons (17 million tonnes in 2019/20 Mr), in particular for France from 3.5 to 3.4 million tons, matching last year's level, Poland, from 2.6 to 2.5 million tons (2.3 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), Romania – from 0.7 to 0.6 million tons (0.9 million tons in 2019/20 MG).
the Forecast of world exports of rapeseed in 2020/21 MG in comparison with the June report increased from 15.2 to 15.5 million tonnes, which exceeds the 15.4 million tons of season 2019/20. In particular, Australia's export forecast increased from 1.8 to 1.9 million tonnes (1.7 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), and for Canada from 9.4 to 9.7 million tonnes, will correspond to the level of last year.
the price of canola (GM canola) on the stock exchange ICE Canada on Friday rose by 0.55 to 487,3 CAD/t or 364,2 $/t on the background of rise in price of palm oil, but improving weather conditions in Canada in the near future will increase pressure on the quotes.
Futures on palm oil in Malaysia continued speculative growth on forecasts of reductions, and on Friday rose by 2.6% to 2778 Ringgits/t or 651,8 $/t, adding to the price for the week of 6%, and two weeks is 14.5%.
