Rapeseed prices are falling despite the forecast of reduced production in the EU

the August rapeseed futures on Euronext at the end of the week, fell by 5 €/t to 369,75 €/t, although the dollar price remained at the level 411,3 $/t due to the strengthening of the Euro against 1,113 $/€.

Last week on the background of lifting the quarantine restrictions in most countries, the price of Brent crude rose to 37.5 $/barrel, which supported the vegetable oil markets. At the same time prices for U.S. soybeans and canadian canola remain under pressure of bad relations with China, which can significantly reduce their imports, which will lead to an increased supply of canola to the EU market and will create additional pressure on the quotes of the rapeseed of the new harvest, despite the decline in forecast rapeseed production in the EU.

prices are pushing the increase in experts of the IGC in the may report compared with the April forecast of stocks of rapeseed in the EU (except the UK) in 2020/21 MG from 0.9 to 1.2 million tons, matching last year's level. However, the decline in forecast imports of rapeseed in the EU from 6 to 5.9 million tonnes, some supported the market.

In this season, as of may 24, the EU imported 5.4 million tons of rapeseed, which is 41% higher than the corresponding figure 2018/19 MG, when it was purchased 3.8 million tonnes.

in addition, compared with the previous season, the export of rapeseed oil from the EU grew by 46% from 151,9 to 221,5 thousand tons.

the Experts of the European Commission lowered its forecast for rapeseed production for EU-27 from 16.45 to 15.6 million tonnes, which almost match last year is 15.25 million tonnes and significantly worse than the average 5-year rate 18,14 mln t. the acreage compared with last year will increase from 5.15 to 5.3 million hectares, but will be lower than the average 5-year rate of 5.88 million hectares.

compared To the previous season's harvest of rapeseed in Bulgaria, which is its largest producer in the EU will rise from 7.42 to 7.58 million tonnes, in Germany – from 2.83 to 3.24 million tonnes, while in France will be reduced from 3.47 to 3.26 million tons.

rainfall improve crop condition and forecast of rapeseed crop in Ukraine, which is the main importer of rapeseed in the EU. Prices for rapeseed of the new harvest at the port remain at the level of $400/t, but manufacturers are in no hurry contractualist, since January, forward price has reached a $420/MT, while quotations of vegetable oils were at the same level as it is now.