Wheat prices turned down again under the pressure of fundamental factors

2021-05-31 12:01:13
Machine translation
Wheat prices turned down again under the pressure of fundamental factors

After a speculative jump on Thursday, wheat prices on world stock exchanges ended the week with a drop of 1.5-2% under pressure from an increase in production forecasts.

 

IGC experts in the May report lowered the forecast of global wheat production from 790.4 to 790.1 million tons compared to April estimates, which will significantly exceed 773.8 million tons of the 2020/21 season. at the same time, the decrease in production forecasts for Canada from 34.1 to 32.3 million tons (35.2 million tons in 2020/21 mg) and the EU from 136.1 to 134.6 million tons (124.5 million tons) will be offset by an increase for Australia from 25 to 26.3 million tons (33.3 million tons), Russia – 77.9 to 79.3 million tons (85.4 million tons) and Ukraine from 27.2 to 27.8 million tons (25.4 million tons in 2020/21 mg).

 

July US futures fell:

  • by 4 4.68 / ton to Чикаго 243.79/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 4 4.78 / ton to.225.33 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City.

Hard spring HRS wheat rose in price by 3 3.77/ton to.267.31/ton in Minneapolis.

 

According to Franceagrimer analysts, the number of soft wheat crops in France in good or excellent condition increased by 1% to 80%.

 

  • Against this background, September wheat futures for MATIF fell by 0.75 €/t to 211.25 €/t or 2 257.66/t.

 

The weather in Ukraine and Russia contributes to the formation of a good wheat harvest in the new season. As of May 28, 11.8 million hectares of spring wheat were sown in Russia, or 92.9% of the planned area, compared to 11.6 million hectares last year on the same date.

 

Black Sea wheat futures in Chicago fell:

  • July-by 3 3.5 / ton to 2 255 / ton,
  • August-by 1 1.75/ton to.257 / ton.

 

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that in the period June 2-8, the "floating" customs rate for wheat exports will be 2 28.1/ton, although before that it was 3 32.59/ton, which activates the export of Russian wheat of the old crop. However, so far there is a demand from Asian buyers only for feed wheat of the new crop, which replaces corn, which has significantly increased in price.

 

As of May 27, The Indian authorities purchased a record 40 million tons of new crop wheat from local farmers, exceeding the record public procurement last year at 38.99 million tons. according to official forecasts, the government of the country will purchase 43.34 million tons of wheat this year against the background of another record harvest.

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