Wheat prices fall despite fundamental factors

In addition to the reduced forecasts of wheat production for the US and the EU in the July balance USDA yesterday was the reduced valuation of the wheat crop in Russia. However, stock prices fell under pressure from falling corn market and the slow pace of exports in the new season.

Experts IKAR again lowered the forecast of wheat production in Russia in the new season by 1.5 million tonnes to 76.5 million tons, while in June have reduced the evaluation of 79.5 to 78 million tons.

As of July 13 in Russia, with 5.4 million hectares and produced 18.1 million tonnes of wheat with a yield of 3.37 t/ha, whereas on July 12, 2019 was produced 26.8 million tonnes of wheat with a yield of 3.79 t/ha.

During the first two weeks of the new season, the EU has reduced compared to the corresponding period in 2019/20 MG export soft wheat by 62% to 241,5 thousand tons and increased its imports by 13% to 43.2 thousand tons.

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• the slow pace of exports amid sharp declines in Chicago led to the fall of the September futures milling wheat on MATIF 2.25 €/t to 184,75 €/t or 209,53 $/t

After Friday's growth to the highest since April 24, the level of the us wheat market yesterday fell under pressure from the sharp fall in the neighboring markets of soybeans and corn.

the Impact of the "bull" of the July USDA report the corn market was offset by the improving weather in the Central Midwest that could improve the prospects for the next harvest.

wheat Exports from the U.S. last week rose by 66% to 624 thousand tons, and from the beginning of the season (1 July) amounted to 2.9 mln tons.

the September wheat futures in the U.S. fell:

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at 1.10 $/t to 164,98 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

by 2.76 $/t to 190,60 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

• at 3.40 $/t to 192.81 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

After the stock exchanges of the USA and the EU September futures for black sea wheat dropped to 209 $/t, while the physical markets continue to grow.

According to Rusagrotrans export prices demand for Russian wheat new crop with protein 12,5% delivery 2-9 August grew 7.5 $/t-203 $/t, whereas bid prices are 208 to 210 $/t compared to 192 $/MT a year ago.

In Ukraine, purchasing prices for milling wheat grew up in the ports on the $2-3/t to 190-192 $/t or 6100-6200 UAH/t, and fodder – up to 176 to 178 $/t or 5650-5750 UAH/t