Wheat prices expected by new factors

the price of wheat hoping to get support from the problems with the harvest in Canada, Australia and Argentina.

the experts of the IGC, a new report has left the forecast of world wheat production at 764 million tons, but reduced the estimated consumption of 1 million tons, resulting in ending stocks will rise to 272 million tonnes. Forecast of wheat production is reduced for Argentina, but increased for the EU.

Traders are watching the harvesting of spring wheat and canola in Canada, which delayed rainfall and frosts. As of September 23, in the province of Saskatchewan collected only 39% of the crop compared with 62% on average for 5 years, in particular spring wheat only 31%. In Manitoba, the crop is harvested 59% of areas, compared to 70% in average over 3 years, including spring wheat – 86%.

In Argentina due to prolonged soil drought, the number of wheat crops in poor and very poor condition for the week rose 2.5% to 20%. According to forecasts of the Grain exchange Buenos Aires, the lack of rainfall during grain ripening will greatly reduce the harvest.

the Forecast rain with snow in the States of Montana and North Dakota, where they have not collected spring wheat, did not support prices for hard wheat in Minneapolis, where, after six days of growth they are turned down, as traders began to fix profit.

Weekly wheat exports from the U.S. were lower than expert expectations and amounted to 283 thousand tons, which is 57% less than the corresponding indicator 2018

the price of wheat in Chicago and Kansas yesterday grew after the quotes of the black sea wheat and influenced by technical factors. The price of winter wheat after 5-day drop turned up.

December futures increased:

1.56 $/t 150 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city.

• by 2.57 $/ton to 177,93 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

At the same time by 2.02 $/t to 201,63 $/t cheaper solid spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

December futures for milling wheat on Eurinext yesterday rose by 2.25 €/t up to 173 €/t or 188,97 $/t with the support of growth in tender prices in Egypt and the fall of the Euro against 1,0915 $/€.

Traders understand that the lows had already passed, and soon the price of wheat will rise, so has stepped up the purchase.

European traders while not concerned about the increase of the forecast of wheat production in Russia, where local producers are holding back sales in expectation of price growth, which allows to intensify the export of wheat from the EU. The rise in prices of Russian wheat after a tender in Egypt on the background of the fall of the Euro increases the competitiveness of European grain.