Wheat prices in the physical markets fall under pressure from the decline in exports

ahead of the February balance USDA wheat stock prices continue to fall as analysts do not predict significant changes in the balance, and wheat prices in the physical markets fall under pressure from weaker exports and increase proposals of Russian wheat.

the wheat finished Friday's trading session higher by 1%, partially offsetting the previous fall, but for a month it fell by 2.5-3.5%, while the European wheat despite the slight decrease in the price remains at 3% higher than a month ago.

• the March futures black sea wheat in Chicago for the week fell on a $15/ton to $270/t

Customers reduce purchases in anticipation of lower prices, with increased sentences of Russian wheat and competitiveness of the European grain due to the low rate of the Euro against the dollar. The price proposals of the European wheat are at the level 280-285 $/t FOB, Russian – 285-287 $/t FOB.

Russia for a week exported 800 thousand tons of wheat, and in General in 2020/21 MG – 29.7 mln t, which is 26% higher than last year's pace. The news that the quota for grain exports from Russia in the period of February 15 – June 30 $ 17.5 million tons have been distributed between 234 exporters, negatively impacted the market. Offer of wheat will decrease, because some exporters will not get a sufficient amount of quotas, although quotas were distributed to the historical principle, given the indicators 2020, and discussed with market participants.

Ukraine for a week exported only 105 thousand tons of wheat, but only in the season of 13.1 million tonnes, which is 22% below the corresponding period last year.

Canada a week reduced the export of soft wheat for 59%, but overall, the season has exported 10 million tons of wheat, which is 28% higher than the previous season. According to Statistics, the wheat stocks at 31 December fell by 3.8% to 24.8 million tonnes, which is 3% higher than the average 5-year rate, and allows to further increase exports.