Corn prices ahead of USDA report continue to grow

the corn Market, like the markets for soybeans and wheat remains under pressure of uncertainty in yield and demand, and the containment of sales by sellers leads to higher prices for physical markets and exchanges.

in anticipation of the release of the USDA report, analysts gave their assessment of the corn crop in the U.S. and world carryover stocks of season 2020/21.

the average data conducted by the Agency СmdtyView survey, the average corn yield in the U.S. was lowered from 178,43 to of 178.2 bushels/acre, whereas according to the median estimate of Bloomberg, it will fall to 177,9 bushels/acre compared to 178,5 in the September USDA report. Average rating for harvest was reduced from 371,8-381,8 to 376,5 mln t compared to 378,5 million tonnes in the September report and 388 million tons in August.

According to the USDA, in season 2019/20, which ended September 1, corn exports reached 45.1 million tons (the forecast 44,83 million tonnes) due to increased exports to China to the highest since 2011/12 the level of 4.2 million tons.

Experts believe that beginning stocks of corn in the U.S. in 2020/21 MG will be 53,85 million tonnes compared to 50,75 mln t, parkovanie the report on September 30.

it is unknown, will change the USDA experts the balance sheet of corn in China, because the exports of newly harvested corn from the United States and Ukraine, China is already estimated at 20 million tons, whereas in the September report, this figure has left at 7 million tonnes.

Export prices of American, Argentinean, Brazilian and Ukrainian corn during the week have leveled off at the level of 200-205 $/t FOB, resulting in bid prices for delivery to Asia increased to 230 $/t C&F. According to preliminary data, the South Korean Cocopia bought one ship of corn with delivery in November at a price of 228 $/t CFR, which indicates a gradual increase in prices by buyers.

Corn in the U.S. collected on 25% of the area, and dry weather in the next 10 days will allow you to grind half of the area. According to analysts, that while collecting 50% of the crop prices reach minimum. Therefore, the new report and an increase in supply will allow prices new impetus.

the December futures on corn in the United States yesterday increased to 151,7 $/t with the support of oil prices, however, the refusal of the President of trump before the election to make the Senate a bill to the second aid package for the economy in the amount of 1.6-2.2 trillion $ stopped speculative growth of stock prices and oil at the end of the session.

In Ukraine on the background of slow collection and containment of sales prices of corn in the port increased up to 185-189 $/t or 6400-6500 UAH/t. Data on productivity confirm the worst predictions of yield for Ukraine at the level of 30-32 million tons, which reinforces the speculative mood in the markets.