Speculative growth of dollar on the interbank market stopped

Political instability in Ukraine heats the panic on the growth rate of currency in the near future. Last week actively discussed the probability of technical default for the deferral of payments on the loans and the suspension of the negotiations with the IMF until a new government is formed.

At this news the speculators began to destabilize the dollar, which for a week has increased from 26.33 to of 27.15 UAH/$. Yesterday on the interbank market from morning to 27.06/27,10 dollar by the afternoon rose to 27,22/27, and 25 UAH/$.

market Operators noted the increase in the speculative component in the formation of the exchange rate with the active support of non-residents.

Yesterday has passed auction of government bonds that reduces the rate due to the increase in supply of currency by non-residents who wish to buy securities. However, non-residents began to keep currency sales that major customers were buying overvalued exchange rate, and speculators were confident in its further growth.

However, after noon the situation has changed, there are fewer buyers, and sellers has increased sales. The offers exceeded the demand on the interbank market, through to 15:00, the dollar dropped to 27,10/27,14 UAH/$, and by the end of trading was trading at 27,11/of 27.15 UAH/$. The national Bank gave the market the opportunity to determine the course and at the auction did not go.

Further actions of market participants will depend on the decisions of the monetary Committee of the NBU discount rate and the outcome of today's auction the Ministry of Finance on government bonds.

during the week the hryvnia exchange rate will remain within 27,1-27,2 UAH/$, but the suspension of cooperation with the IMF will affect the rate until the end of the year. In the summer, Ukraine has to pay 1.8 billion $ foreign debt, in September for $ 1.7 billion. In addition, in July-August will be the payment of the equivalent of $ 1 billion to non-residents of hryvnia government bonds, which were acquired in January-April, with the subsequent transfer of means in currency.

Working on a new IMF program would take at least a few months, but it will begin only after the formation of the new government, that is, until September. In addition, after signing the agreement, which could take place in September-October to release a new tranche also it will take some time.