The heat in Europe restrains the fall in corn prices

2022-08-11 12:43:34
Machine translation
The heat in Europe restrains the fall in corn prices

August weather remains a major factor in supporting corn prices as the Northern Hemisphere harvests finalize and Brazil begins exporting second-crop corn. This puts pressure on prices, especially given the large stocks of old-crop corn in Ukraine and the US.

 

Traders expect Friday's USDA report to downgrade forecasts for production and global inventories, but the main focus will be on EU crop forecasts and imports to China, where demand for products is falling due to lockdowns and a worsening economy due to a crisis in the construction industry.

 

The resumption of exports from Black Sea ports allowed Ukraine to intensify supplies of corn, of which 1.448 million tons have already been shipped in the 2022/23 season, compared to 1.148 million tons in the same period of 2021.

 

October Black Sea corn futures in Chicago this week rose 0.9% to $318.75/t, losing 2.2% of the price for the month.

 

According to the Conab agency, in Brazil, on August 6, corn of the second harvest was threshed on 80% of the planned areas (+19% for the week), while last year on this date 62% of the areas were threshed.

 

ANEC experts believe that in August Brazil will export 6.22 million tons of corn, which will be 11% higher than in July (5.62 million tons) and 48% higher than in August 2021 (4.19 million tons). At the same time, it is possible that the export volume will reach 7.2 million tons in August.

 

According to Crop Progress, as of August 7, 45% of corn crops in the US had entered the waxy maturity phase (53% last year and 49% on average over 5 years). The number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week decreased 3% to 58% (64% last year) due to a lack of precipitation in the western US Corn Belt.

 

The export of corn from the USA for the week fell by 38.5% to 555.6 thousand tons, reaching 52.5 million tons in the 2021/22 MR, so it will not reach the planned 62 million tons by September 1, as a result of which transitional stocks will grow by 5- 6 million tons

 

December corn futures in Chicago this week rose 1.9% to $243.6/t, losing 1.6% of the price for the month.

 

In the new season, as of August 7, the EU imported 1.99 million tons of corn (1.37 million tons for this period last year) thanks to the increase in supplies from Ukraine through the western borders.

 

November corn futures on the Paris Euronext rose by 7.7% to €330.5/t or $340/t on forecasts of a reduced crop in the EU due to heat for the month, which will provide support to Ukrainian corn prices.

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