Inventory reduction on the background of high export demand support the prices of maize in Ukraine

2020-05-25 12:43:58
Machine translation
Inventory reduction on the background of high export demand support the prices of maize in Ukraine

the Demand for Ukrainian corn from traders grows on the background of the necessity of the execution of the may contract and shortage of supply from manufacturers. For the execution of contracts traders are forced to raise prices, therefore, for delivery in may now offer a better price than in June.

 

As of may 1 stocks of corn in Ukraine decreased in comparison with the previous year by 28.5%, in particular from farmers – by 21.1%, in enterprises engaged in the processing and storage of grain, 36.1%.

 

With the beginning of the season Ukraine exported 28 million tons of corn, 1.6 million MT higher than the corresponding period last year. In 2018/19 MG corn exports amounted to 29.8 million tons, and this, according to the may USDA forecast, it will reach 32 million tonnes, although domestic experts believe that it will not exceed 30 million tonnes due to lower export demand and world prices.

 

week prices of offers of Ukrainian corn was grown for 4-5 $/t to 180-182 $/t FOB for shipments in may-June, while the bid price does not exceed 175-176 $/t FOB.

 

Prices of Brazilian and American corn gradually dropped to 150 to 157 $/t FOB, but the Argentine has fallen to $140/MT FOB due to the depreciation of the local currency after the announcement of default. Harvesting corn in Argentina is quite active, and already threshed 50% of the area.

 

In Ukraine, purchasing prices of corn in the port for delivery in may rose to 168-170 $/t or 5400-5450 UAH/t, but the manufacturers had not increased sales, hoping that prices will rise to last year's level of $180/t But on the back of further fall in world prices due to forecasts of a record new crop is unlikely traders will raise prices.

 

the Pace of planting corn in the United States and Ukraine exceeded the average, and recent precipitation improves the prospects for future harvest.

 

As of may 21, in Ukraine corn sown 5.25 million hectares of the planned 5.4 million hectares, compared to 4.42 million hectares in 22.05.2019 g, so the production forecast from the USDA at 39 million tonnes looks pretty realistic.

 

the Forward price of corn of the new harvest in Ukraine is 143-144 $/t at the port, but the decline in December U.S. corn to $130/ton presses on the market. In the case of a record corn harvest in the US corn prices in Ukraine will fall to 130-135 $/t at the port.

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