How much longer will strengthen the hryvnia?

2018-11-16 12:05:40
Machine translation
How much longer will strengthen the hryvnia?

during the week, the hryvnia on the interbank market has further strengthened its position and is already trading below 28 UAH/$.

 

Supported significant inflow of foreign currency from non-residents who purchased bonds and the increase in supply of foreign currency from exporters, who for the sake of avoiding losses from further depreciation of the ruble accumulate the funds necessary to conduct its current business activities and settlements with the budget.

 

the decision of the IMF before the end of the year to provide the next tranche also reassured the market.

 

the Liquidity of banks is reduced, in addition, it is distributed very unevenly. The main reserves of the hryvnia concentrated in the 6-8 largest banks, while other financial institutions are experiencing a shortage of the hryvnia.

 

NBU rather reserved buys the excess foreign currency on the interbank market, holding quotes from surges.

 

But on the hryvnia will continue to push macroeconomic factors that are not yet are not in her favor.

 

Growing deficit of trade balance of Ukraine. For 9 months of 2018, it was higher compared to the same period 2017 to 30 percent from 4,009 to 6,469 billion $, which is 3.5 times higher than that in 2016, particularly In comparison with last year, exports of goods increased by 10.3% to 34,551 $ billion, imports by 16.1% to 41,02 billion dollars.

 

the Amount that the resident withdraw from the country in the form of dividends, will increase from $ 1.7 billion in 2018 To $ 3.5 billion in 2019

 

In December budget spending is 2-3 times higher than the annual average, because they are underfinanced by UAH 65 billion, and at the end of the year all the accumulated underfunding will be repaid, which will lead to a sharp inflow of funds into the economy and increase the devaluation of the hryvnia.

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