Soybean market depends on China's intent
Representative USDA China has lowered the estimate of soybean imports into the country by 9.5% to 85 million tonnes, that will be taken into account in the new balance USDA, which will publish on Thursday.
Now this figure corresponds to the official Chinese forecast that the outbreak of African swine fever and reducing the use of soy in animal feed, soybean imports will decrease by 9 million tonnes to 85 93,5 million tons.
amid a record harvest this season, such a reduction would lead to higher soybean stocks in the United States.
the Chances of settlement prior to the end of the month trade dispute between the US and China is quite high. However, even the resumption of exports to China in December will not allow the ship sufficient to enter the market a new soybean from Brazil.
According to AgRural, Brazil's soybean planted 60% of space versus 43% last year and 41% average for 5 years. In the new season with 35.8 million hectares plan to collect not less than 120 million tons of soybeans.
the Good rainfall facilitated early maturing soybeans that will allow you to start the collection and export of soybean in China in January.
higher export prices for Argentine soybeans from China and the introduction of additional duties on the export of soybean products has led to a sharp reduction in the spread between the fees for the shipment of soybeans and by-products, making oil more interesting for exporters. In October, Argentine traders have contracted nearly 1 million tons of soybeans, whereas in the same period last year this figure did not exceed 90 thousand tons.
experts predict Grain exchange Buenos Aires, despite a sharp decline of production in Argentina 2018/19 MG will be able to export 14 million tons of soybeans under the trade disputes between the US and China. Against the background of increasing exports of Argentine soybean processors are increasing the imports of cheap soybeans from the United States to load their own refining capacity to meet Chinese demand for soybean meal.
