The soybean market is waiting for new influencers

2019-01-24 12:03:44
Machine translation
The soybean market is waiting for new influencers

in the Near future dynamics of prices for soybeans and other oilseeds will determine the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China and the news from South America.

 

the Lack of progress in negotiations and rumors about their suspension put pressure on the stock price of soy. However, the statement of representatives of the United States and China to continue the talks next week led to a rise in soybean futures in Chicago to 337 $/t

 

the week USA increased soybean exports by 2% to 1.1 million tonnes, which is 21.9% lower than the level of last year. In China shipped 416,4 thousand tons, which was the largest weekly export volume in China, starting from March 2018.

 

Experts lower forecasts of the sowing area of soybeans in the U.S. in 2019. Agency Informa has reduced compared to previous year estimate of the acreage of 2.9 million acres to 86.2 million acres.

 

due to the shortage of rain in Brazil, the forecasts of soybean production in the country also decrease. So, Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered the crop estimate by 1 million tonnes to 115 million tonnes and the average expert rating, according to Reuters, is at a level of 117 million tonnes.

 

the Export of soybeans from Brazil to 2019 is estimated at 75 million tons, whereas in the previous my, the country exported a record of 83.9 million tonnes, thanks to good harvests and demand from China, which refused to import soybeans from the United States.

 

In January, Brazil exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans, mostly to China.

 

Argentina a poor harvest and active import from China last year from an exporter of soybeans has become an importer. In comparison with 2017 exports of soybeans decreased from 7.4 to 3.69 million tonnes, whereas imports rose from 1.9 to 6.44 million tons. In the 4th quarter of 2018, the country exported of 2.24 million tonnes of soybeans compared to 700 thousand MT during this period, in 2017, When China has acquired 97% of this volume against 72% in 2017.

 

currently, weather conditions in Argentina contribute to obtaining a good harvest of soybeans, which will allow to resume the export.

 

the Forecast of soybean imports to China is still not certain, and it decreases due to the outbreak of ASF, which reduce the number of pigs.

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