Wheat markets are again under pressure of news from Russia

Plans of the government of Russia to introduce duty on wheat exports became an excellent growth factor for speculators on the exchanges, which continued to disperse quotations for wheat, which in turn has increased again by 2.5-3.5% after a sharp rise on Thursday and unexpected bullish USDA report.

the Factor of Russia remained the main driver of trading in the wheat exchanges of the US on Friday. Details of the discussion of export duties on wheat, which leaked to the media show the seriousness of the intentions of the Russian government. Over the past two days, while in Russia there is talk of duty, March quotes soft wheat in Chicago rose by 11.48 $/t

To expand the market continued to work, and factor the December USDA report, which has lowered the forecast of ending stocks of wheat in the U.S., and especially more in the world than experts had predicted.

March quotes of the American wheat have risen:

the

• soft Wheat SRW in Chicago for $ 225,79 of 6.61 to $ / ton;
• the
• hard Wheat HRW in Kansas city for $ 6,52 to 213,57 $ / t;
• the
• hard Wheat HRS in Minneapolis by $2.76 to 209,43 $ / t

the March of French Wheat at the end of trading Friday came on a 2-week high. Mainly because more and more probable the introduction of export duties on Russian wheat.

However, European traders fear that Russian exporters for the remaining time before the introduction of the toll, can activate the shipment and it will put pressure on world prices in a short period.

the March quotations of milling wheat on the Paris stock exchange MATIF rose by €5,75 to 210,50 €/t (254,93 $/t).

Duty on wheat exports from Russia may reach 2 thousand rubles per tonne according to "Interfax", and will be effective from February 15, 2021."

Discussions on duties and quotas in Russia continue to raise the price of wheat in the cash markets, and they jumped at the 4-5 dollar level 255-258$/MT FOB, both on the Russian and European and Australian wheat.

the Export of wheat from Russia over the past week decreased by 17% to 1 million tonnes, but since the beginning of the season the total export has reached 23.5 million tonnes, which is 21% more compared to the same period last year, and is the fastest pace of the country's exports in the entire history of observations.
Traders are trying to take out amounts before the imposition of duties and quotas, so by the end of January, the pace of exports will accelerate. Although some exporters have already started to reduce prices for delivery in the port to the level of about 16,000-17000рублей per ton, although in mid-November, prices of wheat (protein 12.5 percent) reached 18500-18 800 rubles.

Wheat exports from Ukraine Over the last week declined by 38% to 150 thousand tons and the total exports from the beginning of the season is 12.1 million tonnes, which is 13% lower than the same date last year.

Procurement price of wheat remain at around 8000 UAH / ton, or 235 to 238$/t delivery port amid low activity of traders for purchase of wheat, as well as the lack of proposals from farmers.