Predictions of grain harvest in Ukraine in the new season exceed last year

in Connection with the April analysts "APK-inform", Ukraine in 2021 will increase compared to the previous season, the production of grain and leguminous crops 13% to 73.8 million tons, including wheat – 10% to 27.5 million tons, barley – 2% to 8 million tons of corn by 19% to 35.7 million tonnes.

Optimistic forecasts by favourable for wintering of winter crops and spring crops sowing conditions, as well as the high world prices for the main crops, which are held in the markets for 2020/21 MG.

Over current conditions in the domestic consumption of grain in the next season the exports of grain from Ukraine could increase by 19% from 45.5 to almost record 54.2 million tons, including wheat – by 13% to 19.8 million tonnes, barley – 1% to 4.3 million tonnes, corn – 27% to 29.5 million tonnes the Previous record was set in 2019/20 MG, when Ukraine exported 54.9 million tonnes of grain.

Despite the optimistic predictions of crop production and trade risks remain quite high. So, already familiar to the domestic climate is arid conditions may adversely affect early sowing of crops in the latter stages of the vegetation and the crops of late crops, the formation stage of the crop. In the course of trade, Ukraine can expect a high level of competition and the risks of non-tariff regulation. In addition, a large grain harvest will increase the load on your internal logistics system.

According to the Ministry, in 2020/21 MG corn exports from Ukraine decreased compared to the corresponding period of last year by 30% to 16.6 million tons, wheat by 19% to 14.4 million tons, barley – by 6% to 4.1 million tons.

Backlog from last year's pace of exports will lead to an increase in carryover stocks and the total volume of grain proposals in the new season.