Forecasts for wheat harvest in Russia and the world

the Intrigue behind the forecast of wheat production in Russia remains the main factor supporting the wheat markets.

Reduced wheat yields in the South of Russia kompensiruet increasing crop yields in the Central region, but there remains uncertainty with the Eastern part, where severe drought conditions.

As of 22 July in Russia, the wheat threshed from the area of 9.1 million hectares harvested 32 million tons of grain with a yield of 3.54 t/ha. Krasnodar Krai completed the first grain harvest, with the collected 8 million tons of wheat, which is 15% less than last year.

In the Novosibirsk region and the Altai territory this year was very early spring and in the summer almost everywhere, there is a significant deficit of precipitation, which will reduce the yield potential of spring wheat according to local analysts up to 50%.

According to S & P Global Platts, the price of Russian wheat with protein of 12.5% on basis FOB Black sea ports on July 21, fell by $2.5 dollars to 206 $/ton, the lowest level since July 13. Earlier in July, prices rose by 7%, reaching the highest level since July of 2019.

Experts S &P, Platts Global associate the weakening prices with a decrease in activity of buyers.

In Bulgaria also reduced the forecast of wheat crop followed by Romania.

According to the foreign service of the Department of agriculture (FAS USDA), during spring and summer drought, the average yield of wheat in Bulgaria will fall relative to last year by 30%, while the gross harvest of wheat is not more than 5.4 million tonnes, which is 14.6% less than in 2019.

Private importers from Pakistan over the last eighteen months has contracted, at least 300 thousand tons of black sea wheat at about 220-239 $/t C&F for delivery in August and September.

the Growth of export prices until July 21, a little based on fears of a supply shortage in July - August because of lower yields in the southern parts of Russia and Ukraine. However, experts believe that the shortfall will be offset by the production growth in Central Russia and the Volga region.