Dry conditions in Russia and the United States continue to push wheat prices up

The dry weather established in the central and southern regions of Russia continues to reduce the potential of the wheat crop, and some analysts are already talking about a decrease in the yield of corn and sunflower.

Following the reduction of the forecast by SovEcon agency for wheat production in Russia by 2.3 million tons to 82.3 million tons, yesterday the Institute for agricultural market research (icar) lowered its forecast by 2 million tons to 81.5 million tons due to a reduction in moisture reserves in the South, which is why winter wheat loses moisture, weight, and reduces the potential for spring wheat.

According to these agencies, quotes of Russian wheat with protein 12.5% have increased since the beginning of the week from the levels of 2 225-230/ton to the level of F 240/ton FOB.

Quotes of Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange continued to grow yesterday and August futures added 1 1.5/ton to.245.25/ton, and December by. 1.75/ton to. 259.25/ton.

Thursday was another day of strengthening of the US wheat market. The Minneapolis stock exchange was the locomotive of growth. September prices for durum spring wheat soared to the highest values in 8½ years amid a drought that is intensifying in the Northern American plain and in the prairies of Canada.

Export sales of wheat to the United States continue to grow and over the past week, although they have become the highest since the beginning of the season, reaching 424.7 thousand tons (+46% for the week), but still 44.5% less than a year ago, and total sales since the beginning of the season have reached 7.1 million tons, which is 13.8% behind last season's figures. Wheat exports for the week were within the expectations of traders at the level of last week and amounted to 365.9 thousand tons, and total exports since the beginning of the season are 1.9 million tons, which is 52% less than a year ago.

September quotes of American wheat rose:

• soft wheat SRW in Chicago by 6 6.52 to 2 246.91 / ton;
• HRW durum wheat in Kansas City by 4 4.59 to 2 235.25 / ton;
• hrs durum wheat in Minneapolis increased by 7 7.81 to 3 328.48 / ton.

The French wheat market continues to follow in the footsteps of US wheat, which is confidently going up. In addition, the risks of deterioration in the quality of wheat of the new crop due to extremely wet weather and flooding in some regions remain a supporting factor in recent days.

Quotes of September French wheat at the end of trading on Thursday rose to a 2-week high, but further growth limited the growth of the harvest forecast in the EU.

September prices of flour wheat on the Paris matif Exchange rose by €0.50 to €208.75/ton (€246.48/ton).

The European agency Strategie Grains in its July report again raised its forecast for the soft wheat harvest in the EU - 27 countries by 1.9 million tons. tons up to 133 million tons. tons, which is 14 million. tons more than last year's harvest, and the forecast for European soft wheat exports in 2021/22 mg increased by 2.4 million tons to 31 million. tons, which is 4.1 million. t more than last season's exports.

However, the agency expresses concerns about the possible negative impact on grain quality due to wet weather in the south-eastern and western regions of Europe.