Weather conditions help to increase crop forecasts in Ukraine and Russia
Weather conditions that prevailed in the black sea region countries in early June, contributed to the accumulation of soil moisture reserves, development of crops and increase the yield potential of wheat. This has allowed analysts to increase forecasts of grain harvest in Ukraine and Russia in 2020/21 MG.
Experts Refinitiv increased compared to the previous estimate, the forecast of wheat production in Ukraine by 5% to 26.8 million tons (25,5-31 million tonnes), in Russia – by 2% to 77.4 million tonnes (72.2 per-99,8 million t).In the last two weeks the temperature of the air in Ukraine and Russia was 1 to 4oC below normal, but rainfall was closer to normal, and in some regions, for example in the West of Ukraine and in the Rostov region, even exceeded it.
Ministry of agriculture forecasts that the grain harvest in the new season will exceed 68 million tonnes, while earlier it was estimated at 65-68 mln t. in addition, the Department believes that the production of oilseeds (sunflower, rapeseed and soybean) will be 20 million tons and sugar beet – 9 million tons of grain Exports, according to experts, will remain at the level of the current season. Carryover stocks of wheat at the end of June is projected 1.5 million tons.
In the may report "APK-inform", the export of Russian grain in 2020/21 MG estimated at 46.9 million tonnes, which is 8.7% higher than the previous season. In particular, it is expected that exports of wheat will increase by 8.7% to 37.5 million tons, barley – by 8.6% to 3.8 mln tonnes, maize – by 7.5% to 4.3 million t. the Increase in exports can be explained by the increase of grain production compared to previous year by 3.2% to 125 million tonnes, while domestic consumption of grain in the country will amount to 79,4 mln tonnes, which almost corresponds to 2019/20 Mr.
