Deterioration of spring wheat crops in the United States will stop the fall in exchange prices

On Friday, there was speculative growth on wheat exchanges, but on Monday prices froze, and in some places fell. The report on the state of crops in the United States was published after the end of trading, so the reaction of the markets will be known today.

Improving the prospects for the wheat harvest in Russia increases pressure on the prices of Black Sea wheat of the new crop, and the activation of exports of the old crop increases the volume of offers on the market. During June 1-20, Russia exported 2.08 million tons of wheat, which is 5 times higher than last year's figure. In total, 33.6 million tons of wheat were exported in the season as of June 17, which is 11% more than last year. Prices for Russian wheat for the week decreased by 1 10/ton to F 248-255/ton FOB, depending on the delivery date.

Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange remained at the same level:

• July-2 252 / ton,
• August-2 253.25 / ton,
• December-2 262.75 / ton.

A sharp deterioration in the state of spring wheat crops in the United States today will be the main factor supporting prices on world stock exchanges. According to the NASS USDA, as of June 20, the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased immediately by 10% to 27% (75% last year), while winter wheat increased by 1% to 49% compared to 52% last year.

July US futures fell yesterday:

• by 0 0.46 / ton to Чикаго 242.90/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2 2.48/ton to.220.10 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City.

Hard spring HRS wheat rose in price by 0 0.73/ton to.280.70/ton in Minneapolis.

Winter wheat in the United States is harvested on 17% of the area, up from 27% last year and 26% on average over 5 years as of this date. The yield is at the level of average, or even higher, and the moisture content of the grain is very low.

During the week, the United States exported 548.5 thousand tons of wheat, and in general in the new season – 1.2 million tons, which is 16% lower than last year's pace.

The European Union exported only 69.1 thousand tons of wheat for the week, and in general in 2020/21 MG – 25.1 million tons, which is 27% lower than the corresponding indicator of the previous season. The strengthening of the dollar against the euro from 1 1.21 to€ 1.19 / € increases pressure on European grain prices.

• September wheat flour futures for MATIF fell by €1/ton to €207.25/ton or € 246.88 / ton.

Now traders ' attention will be focused on the spring wheat growing regions in Canada and the United States, where hot weather is returning again.