After the publication of USDA report, wheat prices continued to rise
reduction experts, the USDA forecast wheat production in China and increased its estimates for global consumption, which will lead to a sharp reduction in ending stocks, wheat prices responded with another increase.
Analysts had expected the balance of the January USDA wheat will have a neutral nature, so a sharp decline forecast for world ending stocks was a surprise to the market, which is already under pressure from reduced exports and rising prices for Russian wheat.
compared with the December report, the forecast of world wheat production has been reduced by 1 million tonnes to 772,66 million tonnes, which is by 7.76 million tonnes will exceed the harvest 2019/20 Mr will remain a record. So, for the Argentina production forecast is reduced 0.5 million tons to 17.5 million tonnes (of 19.76 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), for China by 1.8 million tonnes to 134,3 million t (133,6 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) that corresponds to the data of the National stature China, while for Australia it was left unchanged, while Russia has increased by 1.3 million tons to 85.3 million tonnes (73.6 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), which corresponds to the estimates of Rosstat.
the Forecast of world consumption of wheat increased by 1.76 million tonnes to 759,54 million tons due to increased consumption of feed wheat to China for 1 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes and the USA at 0.7 million tonnes to 3.4 million tonnes amid the high prices of corn.
the global trade Forecast left unchanged, as the reduction in exports from Argentina by 0.5 million tons to 12 million tons and Russia at 1 million tonnes 39 million tonnes to be offset by its increase in Canada from 0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes and the EU by 0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons.
For China, the forecast of wheat imports increased 0.5 million tons to 9 million tons compared to last year's 5.38 million tons.
USDA Experts expect that as a result of declining production and increasing consumption ending stocks of wheat in 2020/21 MG will be reduced by 3.3 million tonnes to 313,2 mln tonnes, which will be a record level, while analysts had been estimated at 315-316 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG they made 300,6 million t. China's Share in total reserves will amount to 51% or 159 million tons, India – 10%, or 31.3 million tons.
After the publication of the report, wheat futures in Chicago rose by 4.5%.
it is Worth noting that the Egyptian GASC yesterday refused to buy wheat on the ground in 2021 the tender, as the prices of offers of Romanian and French wheat rose to 293-297,75 $/t FOB, and Russian – up to 315 $/t FOB, which is 22-30 $/t FOB exceed the price of the previous tender.