The higher forecast production in the new season lowers the price of wheat old crop

due To low demand for wheat old crop traders are trying to sell wheat of the new harvest at high prices, but the market pressure improve production forecasts due to favourable rainfall in the United States and in the South of Russia.

Experts Sovekon increased the forecast of wheat production in Russia in 2021 3.1 million tons to 79.3 million tonnes (85.5 million tons in 2020), and in Ukraine – 800 kt to 27.8 million tonnes (25.5 million tons in 2020).

Increase production forecasts has increased pressure on the quotes and the July wheat futures in Chicago yesterday fell 0.6% to 234 $/t and the demand for forward contracts for delivery in July and August decreased to 240 $/t FOB.

the Fall of wheat prices in the United States, which began on Monday on data on improving the condition of winter crops, yesterday was accelerated after the increase of the forecast of wheat production in Russia.

the May futures fell:

• by 2.57 $/t to 235,16 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.66 $/t to 220,83 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city,
• 1.65 $/t to 232,68 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

In anticipation of the tender in Tunisia, which mainly buys European wheat, wheat French market remains under pressure, falling export demand and improving the prospects for winter wheat crop in the United States. Today the Agency of Tunisia (ODC) will hold a tender for the purchase of 117 thousand tons of soft and 42 thousand MT of hard wheat for delivery in April – may that adds optimism to the European traders.

• the May futures for milling wheat on MATIF fell by 0.5 €/t to 221,5 €/t or 265,09 $/t

In Ukraine on the background of the lack of active export demand for black sea wheat prices are gradually declining, and traders in the ports offer 255-260 $/t in anticipation of a boost exports.