The increase in production forecasts for the EU and Australia puts pressure on the price of rapeseed

2020-09-09 12:07:25
Machine translation
The increase in production forecasts for the EU and Australia puts pressure on the price of rapeseed

the Decline of oil prices and the higher forecast of rapeseed production in the EU, Canada and Australia stopped rising prices for rapeseed, and soon could deploy them down.

 

the November canola futures at Matif Paris on Friday rose up to 384, 5 Is/t, and yesterday dropped to 383,75 Have a/t or 451,88 $/t

 

Experts Stratégie Grains in the updated report due to higher than expected yields in the Northern and Central regions of Europe increased compared with the previous estimate, the forecast of rapeseed production in EU countries (along with Britain) in 2020/21 MG 0.3 million tons to 17.1 million tons, which will yield 17.3 million tons of season 2019/20.

 

it is Expected that in comparison with the previous season, the import of rapeseed in EU 2020/21 MG will increase from 6 to 6.2 million tonnes due to the high profitability of its processing. Ending stocks of rapeseed in the EU in the current season will be reduced to 1.1 million tons.

 

the Australian Agency ABARES has increased the forecast of rapeseed production in the country from 3.2 to 3.4 million tons, which will increase supply on the European market against the background of reduction of the crop in Ukraine.

 

In Ukraine in comparison with last year the production of rapeseed has decreased from 3.3 to 2.55 million tons and its exports will decrease to 2.2-2.3 mln t. the hopes of the producers to the rising price of rapeseed as a result of low harvest last year 400-410 $/t to the level of 440-450 $/t at the port did not materialize, as demand from processors for high low, bid prices, and traders do not buy canola more expensive than in 430-435 $/t at the port. Now the price of canola fell to its 425-428 $/t decline in the number of traders and a terminal that accepts rape.

 

On the background of shortages of rapeseed, the EU has increased the demand for soy. In the 1st half of 2020 the EU countries increased compared to the corresponding period last year, the volume of soybean by 8%. Experts of Oil World predicts that in the new season, this trend will continue. According to the European Commission, from 1 July to 30 August 2020, the EU increased its imports of soybeans to 2.56 million tonnes, compared to 2.43 million tons in the same period of 2019 and 2.29 million tonnes in 2018, the import of rapeseed decreased compared to the previous year by 49% from 1.25 million tonnes to 639,8 thousand tons, of which 56% or 358,4 thousand tons were delivered from Ukraine, and 35% or 226,2 thousand t – from Canada.

 

last season Canada increased exports of canola to 2 million tonnes, and will continue to build on it this season with increased production.

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