A new decline in crop forecasts for the US, Canada and Russia continued to raise wheat prices

Yesterday, the wheat market received many new support factors. IGC experts lowered the forecast of global wheat production by 1 million tons to 788 million tons, and the estimate of Final reserves by 3 million tons to 280 million tons compared to 773 million tons and 279 million tons, respectively, in the 2020/21 season.

Experts of the Hydrometeorological center of Russia reduced the forecast of grain production by 11 million tons to 121 million tons, in particular wheat – by 3 million tons.

Wheat in the United States is rising for the second day in a row on data from the crop tour of North Dakota, which showed a spring wheat yield 32% lower than the 5-year average.

The market was supported by the growth of wheat export sales from the United States for the week by 8.9% to 515.17 thousand tons, which is still 24% lower than the corresponding indicator last year. In general, in the season, export sales reached 8.1 million tons. at the same time, actual exports for the week decreased by 26.8% to 344.97 thousand tons, and since the beginning of the season amounted to 2.73 million tons, which is 29% lower than last year's pace.

The decline in the dollar exchange rate also supported quotes.

September US futures rose:

• by 6 6.06 / ton to Чикаго 259.13/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 5 5.51 / ton to H 247.83/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 5 5.42/ton to.337.48 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

European wheat prices are rising on forecasts of a reduction in the harvest in the main producing countries and on forecasts of New prolonged precipitation in Europe next week.

• September wheat flour futures for MATIF rose 4.5 €/T to 220.75 €/t or 2 262.37 / t.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, Black Sea wheat futures rose by 8 8/ton yesterday:

• August-up to 2 262.5 / ton,
• December-up to 2 278/ton.

Against this background, prices for Black Sea wheat increased by 1 10/ton to F 255-260/ton FOB.

It is worth noting that buyers are in no hurry to buy expensive wheat, as they have sufficient reserves for the near future.