Low sowing rate in the United States support the price of wheat

Speculative growth in wheat prices stayed under pressure data on the state of the crops and the sowing rate of wheat in the United States. Forecasts of cold weather and frost in the next few days in parts of the U.S. Plains will support prices, along with the depreciation of the dollar.

According to the USDA NASS report, as of April 18, the number of winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition was like a week ago, 53%,while last year this figure was 57%.

the Rate sowing of spring wheat has increased and now it is planted on 19% of the planned areas, compared to 7% a year ago and 12% on average for 5 years.

a week in the United States were inspected for export 613,6 thousand tons of wheat, which is 33% higher than the previous week and 21% last year. Since the beginning of the season (1 June), the United States exported for 22.02 million tons of wheat, which is 20 thousand tons higher than last year's figure.

the May futures rose:

• 1.01 $/t to 224,87 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city,
• 0.09 $/t to 244,16 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

at the same Time decreased by 0.09 $/t to 239,66 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago.

the European Union for the week exported 215 thousand tons of wheat, and the whole season is 21.3 million tonnes, which is 25% less than the corresponding previous year. At the same time, imports of wheat in comparison with the similar period of last year decreased by only 1.5% to 1,687 million tonnes, driven by higher imports of feed wheat due to high corn prices.

• the May futures for milling wheat on MATIF fell by 1.5 €/t to 216,5 €/t or 261,14 $/t, while the September rose by 0.25 €/t to 207 €/t or 249,78 $/t

the depreciation of the us dollar to 1,206 $/€ reduces the competitiveness of European wheat in comparison with the black sea.

the decline of Russia prices for the week increased its exports of wheat by 50% to 300 thousand tons, and in General in 2020/21 MG exported 35.6 million tonnes of wheat, which is 17% more than last year.

• the July futures black sea wheat yesterday has increased by $1/t to 247 $/t, and in November and December left at 255 $/t on the physical market is pushing up prices for delivery in may – June.

In Ukraine, the purchase price of the wheat grown in the port of 100-200 UAH/t to 7200-7300 UAH/t or 227-230 $/t, resulting in processors has also increased prices to 6900-7100 UAH/t with delivery to the mill.

Low export demand keeps prices the demand for level 240 $/ton, while the price is $250/MT FOB, which limits a further rise in prices, especially given the improvement of crops and acceleration of sowing of spring wheat in the United States and Russia.