The uncertainty of future yield leads to instability in the price of wheat

Stock prices remain very volatile as traders are unable to predict the harvest in the major exporting countries. Prices on the physical market is growing, as producers are holding back sales, hoping to increase prices.

the French wheat Futures fell yesterday after Chicago. In the previous pressures yesterday added to improve the prospects of the corn crop in the US and the EU, as well as a gradual increase in wheat yields in France as you move the cleaning to the North (that does not compensate for the low yields in the South).

Experts Strategie Grains has lowered the forecast of wheat production in Europe by 0.7 million tonnes to 137.6 million tons (in 2019р. – Of 154.7 million tons), including wheat – by 0.6 million tonnes to 130,3 million tons (2019р. – To 147.2 million tonnes) due to lower than expected yields in the South-East of the EU and a significant reduction in sowing areas in the Netherlands, France and the Czech Republic.

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• September futures milling wheat on MATIF fell by 1.5 €/t to 185,75 €/t or 211,44 $/t

Despite the best December 2019, the end of export week, the U.S. wheat market yesterday closed higher after a sharp fall. After three days of growth, when September futures in Chicago renewed a maximum of 2.5 months, investors began to take profits.

Export sales of US wheat over the week grew to 764,3 kt, half of which acquired a China. Wheat exports for the week doubled to 641 thousand tons and since the beginning of the season amounted to 2.8 million tonnes, which corresponds to the previous year.

the September wheat futures in the U.S. fell:

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at 3,95 $/t to 164,88 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

by 4.59 $/t to 189,32 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

• by 5.69 $/t until 196,67 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

In Ukraine, due to the delayed harvest, the purchasing prices for milling wheat grew up in port before 191-194 $/t or 6300-6350 UAH/t In the Central regions yield varies across regions, but generally inferior to last year's figures, which increases speculative demand for wheat by traders.

In Russia, the procurement price of wheat increased to 13200 RUB/ton 185 $/t CPT-Novorossiysk.