The volume of government bonds will continue to put pressure on the hryvnia
In 2020, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine plans to raise 242 billion in the domestic market and UAH 119 billion, equivalent to the external through the placement of bonds of internal state loan (government bonds). In 2018 due to government bonds in the budget was drawn 65,128 billion, 3,478 billion and $ 503 million, and in 2019 – 227,6 billion, 4,3 billion and $ 387 million €.
In case of further reduction of budget revenues, the volume of loans may increase. In January, the plan proceeds to the budget was completed almost 25% or 13.8 billion UAH, the main reason why the Ministry considers a significant change of macroeconomic indicators in comparison with the approved government forecast in October 2019, the Department expect improvements in budget receipts in the coming months, so do not see grounds for revision of the budget.
By selling government bonds the Ministry of Finance in January brought in a budget 18,608 billion, which is 23.7% lower than in January 2019, as the average yield of hryvnia securities decreased significantly and amounted to 10%.
the Decline in rates reduced the demand for such paper, so in January were issued 10-year Eurobonds in the amount of 1.25 billion euros, and February 11 - U.S. denominated securities amounting 202 million us $ with a maturity of 1.2 years at a record low for domestic government bonds rate of return of 3.39%.
the exchange rate of the dollar on the interbank market remains in the range 24,4-24,6 UAH/$, and the main factor to support the hryvnia still have foreign exchange earnings from non-residents wishing to buy government bonds. It is worth noting that in 2020, increaseandare determined in the receipt of the hryvnia from redemption of t-bills that non-residents will be reinvested in new securities or to withdraw in the currency.
In 2020, Ukraine must pay foreign debts 169,24 billion and domestic – 231,46 billion UAH, including in February - 27,68 billion {UAH 4.7 billion for external and 22.98 billion UAH internal), and in March of 36.85 billion (26,69 billion on external and 10.16 billion UAH internal).
Advanced on the dollar and pressure the increase in receipts of currency from Ukrainians working abroad. According to the NBU, during 2019 they sent to Ukraine more than 12 billion $, of which only the fifth part or 2,271 billion $ via money transfer systems.
